Regional electricity market price forecasting based on an adaptive spatial–temporal convolutional network

Abstract

The accurate prediction of electricity prices has great significance for the power system and the electricity market, regional electricity prices are difficult to predict due to congestion issues in regional transmission lines. A regional electricity price prediction framework is proposed based on an adaptive spatial–temporal convolutional network. The proposed framework is expected to better explore regional electricity prices’ spatial–temporal dynamic characteristics in the electricity spot market and improve the predictive accuracy of regional electricity prices. First, different areas of the electricity market are regarded as nodes. Then, each area’s historical electricity price data are used as the corresponding node’s characteristic information and constructed into a graph. Finally, a graph containing the spatial–temporal information on electricity prices is input to the adaptive spatial–temporal prediction framework to predict the regional electricity price. Operational data from the Australian electricity market are adopted, and the prediction results from the proposed adaptive spatial–temporal prediction framework are compared with those of existing methods. The numerical example results show that the predictive accuracy of the proposed framework is better than the existing baseline and similar methods. In the twelve-step forecast example in this paper, considering the spatial dependence of the spot electricity price can improve the forecast accuracy by at least 10.3% and up to 19.8%.