Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour

Simpson, C. E.; Hosking, J. Scott; Mitchell, Dann; Betts, Richard; Shuckburgh, Emily

doi:10.31223/x5sw3n

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Moreover, adult young men are more abreast of climate change than women. These findings confirmed the views of (Simpson et al, 2021) that climate change awareness and risk perceptions are unevenly distributed across population groups, countries, and regions. The highest levels of climate literacy or awareness are mostly within educated and high incomes households and developed economies.…”

Section: Analysis and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

The Threats of Climate Change on Water and Food Security in South Africa

Kwame

Danny

Reid

2022

Am. J. Environ. Clim.

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Globally, water and food crises are exacerbated by climate change, population growth and changing lifestyles. These phenomena have resulted in escalating cycles of civil unrest and conflicts. In South Africa, climate change has led to increased temperatures resulting in numerous deadly heat waves and varying rainfall patterns contributing to deadly flooding in most provinces and droughts in others. These extreme climatic conditions significantly impact agricultural production and water insecurity nationally. Despite the strong impact of climate change on water and food resources in the country, there is less education and inadequate data to address the impacts of climate change, especially at local levels; information is seldom used in planning and decision-making while there is a lack of actionable planning to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Using a mixed method approach of data collection and related literatures, this paper explored the weaknesses in the current climate change mitigation programmes in South Africa in the context of water and food security. The finding established that while multiple policies, regulations, and programmes are designed to minimise climate change's impact on water and food resources, the policies lack coherency at the formulation and implementation stages and are fragmented across various departments and institutions. This paper recommends a coordinated approach to tackling climate change and investment in research that will better understand the country's climate programmes in addressing water and food security.

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Section: Analysis and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

The Threats of Climate Change on Water and Food Security in South Africa

Kwame

Danny

Reid

2022

Am. J. Environ. Clim.

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“…Economic productivity is particularly sensitive to extreme heat and associated hazards, which can affect large regions simultaneously to produce widespread impacts and economic loss (García‐León et al., 2021; Handmer et al., 2012). These impacts are variable across sectors, and particularly affect those relying on labour‐intensive activities such as agriculture, manufacturing and construction (Simpson et al., 2021; Zuo et al., 2015). Human output is impacted through time loss resulting from the heat‐induced health outcomes, or ‘absenteeism’, as well as reductions in work productivity and capacity, termed ‘presenteeism’ (Xia et al., 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Localized impacts and economic implications from high temperature disruption days under climate change

et al. 2022

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Most studies into the effects of climate change have headline results in the form of a global change in mean temperature. More useful for businesses and governments, however, are measures of the localized impact, and also of extremes rather than averages. We have addressed this by examining the change in frequency of exceeding a daily mean temperature threshold, defined as ‘disruption days’, as it is often this exceedance which has the most dramatic impacts on personal or economic behaviour. Our exceedance analysis tackles the resolution of climate change both geographically and temporally, the latter specifically to address the 5‐ to 20‐year time horizon which can be recognized in business planning. We apply bias correction with quantile mapping to meteorological reanalysis data from ECMWF ERA5 and output from CMIP5 climate model simulations. By determining the daily frequency at which a mean temperature threshold is exceeded in this bias‐corrected dataset, we can compare predicted and historic frequencies to estimate the change in the number of disruption days. Furthermore, by combining results from 18 different climate models, we can estimate the likelihood of more extreme events, taking into account model variations. This is useful for worst‐case scenario planning. Taking the city of Chicago as an example, the expected frequency of years with 40 or more disruption days above the 25°C threshold rises by a factor of four for a time period centred on 2040, compared with a period centred on 2000. Alternately, looking at the change in the number of days at a given likelihood, an example is Shenzhen, where the number of disruption days in a once‐per‐decade event exceeding the 25°C or 30°C threshold is expected to rise by a factor of four. In a future stage, superimposing these results onto maps of, for instance, GDP sensitivity or production days lost, will provide more accurate and targeted conclusions for future impacts of climate change. This method of quantifying costs on business‐relevant timescales will enable businesses and governments properly include risks associated with facilities, plan mitigating actions and make accurate provisions. It can also, for example, inform their disclosure of physical risks under the framework of the Task Force on Climate‐related Financial Disclosures. This approach is equally applicable to other weather‐related, localized phenomena likely to be impacted by climate change.

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“…Economic productivity is particularly sensitive to extreme heat and associated hazards, which can affect large regions simultaneously to produce widespread impacts and economic loss (Handmer et al 2012). These impacts are variable across sectors, and particularly affect those relying on labour-intensive activities such as agriculture, manufacturing, and construction (Zuo et al 2015, Simpson et al, 2021. Human output is impacted through time loss resulting from the heat-induced health outcomes, or 'absenteeism', as well as reductions in work productivity and capacity, termed 'presenteeism' (Xia et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Localised economic impacts from high temperature disruption days under climate change

Summers¹,

Mackie²,

Ueno³

et al. 2021

Preprint

Self Cite

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Most studies into the effects of climate change have headline results in the form of a global change in mean temperature. More useful for businesses and governments however are measures of the economic impact, either direct or indirect. We have addressed this by examining how the frequency of exceeding a daily mean temperature threshold changes, defined as "disruption days", as it is often this exceedance which has the most dramatic impacts on personal or economic behaviour. Our exceedance analysis tackles the resolution of climate change both geographically and temporally, the latter specifically to address the 5-20 year time horizon which can be recognised in business planning.We apply bias correction with quantile mapping to meteorological reanalysis data from ECMWF ERA5 and output from CMIP5 climate model simulations. By determining the daily frequency at which a mean temperature threshold is exceeded in this bias-corrected dataset, we can compare predicted and historic frequencies to estimate the change in the number of disruption days. Furthermore, by combining results from 18 different climate models, we can estimate the likelihood of more extreme events, taking into account model variations. This is useful for worst case scenario planning.Taking the city of Chicago as an example, the expected frequency of years with 40 or more disruption days above the 25ºC threshold rises by a factor of four for a time period centred on 2040, compared with a period centred on 2000. Alternately, looking at the change in the number of days at a given likelihood, an example is Shenzhen, where the number of disruption days in a once-per-decade event exceeding the 25ºC or 30ºC threshold is expected to rise by a factor of four.Superimposing these results onto maps of, for instance, GDP sensitivity or production days lost, will provide more accurate and targeted conclusions for future impacts of climate change. This method of quantifying costs on business-relevant timescales will help businesses and governments properly include risks associated with facilities, plan mitigating actions and make accurate provisions. It can also, for example, inform their disclosure of physical risks under the framework of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures. This approach is equally applicable to other weather-related, localised phenomena likely to be impacted by climate change.

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Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour

Cited by 4 publications

References 23 publications

The Threats of Climate Change on Water and Food Security in South Africa

The Threats of Climate Change on Water and Food Security in South Africa

Localized impacts and economic implications from high temperature disruption days under climate change

Localised economic impacts from high temperature disruption days under climate change

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