Regional Differences of Farmers’ Willingness to Grow Grain and Its Influencing Factors in Shandong Province under the Background of New-Type Urbanization

Abstract

Taking Shandong Province as the research area, we explored the willingness of farmers to grow grain and the influencing factors. By constructing the evaluation system of their willingness with 6 levels and 15 indicators based on field investigation, and quantitatively analyzing the influence degree and impact assessment of factors through a logistic regression model, the regional differences in farmers’ willingness were summarized, and the influencing factors were recognized. This study indicates that there were obvious regional differences in farmers’ willingness, which were the highest in the western region, the second in the eastern region, and the lowest in the central region. Specifically, the willingness varies significantly among cities, among which Laiwu has the highest willingness (0.76), while Tai’an has the lowest (0.41). The level of urbanization in different regions and the main influencing factors are different, and the same factor has different degrees of influence on cities, leading to regional differences. In terms of urbanization level, the main influencing factors in areas with high urbanization levels are the proportion of grain income and grain expenditure. However, in areas with a low urbanization level, it is the farmers’ planting attitude. From the perspective of influence mode, different factors have positive and negative differences in the willingness. Additionally, farmers’ willingness is becoming more and more rational, and more consideration is given to economic benefits. Among the influencing factors, the land planting mode, the proportion of grain income, and the proportion of grain expenditure are the most important factors, and 82% (11) of the cities are affected by the above three factors. Finally, the corresponding incentive measures are proposed by the regional differences in the influencing factors in various cities.

Trade-Off Analyses of Multiple Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers in the Shandong Yellow River Basin

“…In areas where the trade-off intensity is high, arable land is widely distributed and agriculture is the main source of income for farmers in the area. In order to obtain higher income, farmers have converted a large amount of forest and grassland to cropland [ 46 ], which puts FP in an advantageous position in the trade-off with other ESs. At the same time, the reduction of forest and grassland has increased the conflict between different ecosystem services [ 80 ], which also puts the region in a relatively high trade-off intensity.…”

“…The Shandong Yellow River Basin (SYRB) is an important grain producing area in Shandong. In 2020, the total grain production in the region accounted for 70% of Shandong, but the area only accounted for 50% of Shandong, which indicates a strong grain production capacity [ 46 ]. Hence, exploring the SYRB Food Production services (FP) can help further explore the advantages of regional grain production resources in a major grain-producing province.…”