Regional Differences in the Growing Incidence of Dengue Fever in Vietnam Explained by Weather Variability

Vu, Ha Hai; Okumura, Junko; Hashizume, Masahiro; Tran, Duong Nhu; Yamamoto, Taro

doi:10.2149/tmh.2013-24

Cited by 39 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Previous studies conducted in Asia and Latin America have revealed the importance of climate conditions in dengue transmission [54–57]. In this study, we found that weekly minimum temperature has a significant bimodal positive effect on dengue transmission when the value is either higher than 23°C or lower than 17°C, and the effects can last for 10–15 weeks.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 57%

Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan

2017

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 57%

Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan

2017

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“…The entomological component of this study spans one year, which does not allow for the examination of longer term trends. Nonetheless, our findings with regards to the importance of relative humidity are consistent with time-series analyses for the region[7, 16]. Our use of dengue hospitalization rates no doubt represents only a small portion of dengue infections.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

“…We postulate that temperature in the Mekong Delta is largely within optimum range for vector breeding and viral dissemination throughout the year. A time-series analysis on regional differences in dengue incidence in Vietnam demonstrated that in Ho Chi Minh City (near Can Tho) where annual average temperature is 28°C, dengue incidence was positively associated with relative humidity, but negatively associated with temperature [16]. This stood in contrast to Hanoi (annual average temperature of 23.6°C), where the opposite was observed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Associations between meteorological variables, vector indices and dengue hospitalizations in Can Tho, Vietnam: a field survey

Toai

Chính²,

Huy

et al. 2019

Preprint

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18 19 42The house-(HI), container-(CI), Breteau (BI), and pupal (PI) indices were associated with relative 43 humidity (1-month lag, IRR HI =1.10 (95% CI 1.06, 1.13) per 1% increase), IRR CI =1.10 (95% CI 1.02, 44 1.19), IRR BI =1.17 (95% CI 1.14, 1.21), IRR PI =1.12 (95% CI 1.10, 1.14)). Vector indices were also 45 associated with precipitation (1-month lag) and to a lesser degree, hours of sun and mean 46 temperature. Ae. aegypti larval density was associated with not cleaning water storage containers 47 (RR=2.50, 95% CI 1.59, 3.66), not having access to municipal waste pick-up (RR=3.15, 95% 48 CI2.09, 4.75), disheveled clothes in the home (RR=1.85, 95% CI 1.24, 2.74) and season (RR[rainy 49 season]=3.10, 95% CI 2.18-4.48). The most productive containers were water storage containers 50 (relative pupal productivity 87%). Dengue hospitalization rates were associated with relative 51 humidity (2-month lag, IRR=1.11 (95% CI 1.06, 1.17) per 1% increase). Only the PI (1-month lag)52 was significantly associated with dengue hospitalization rates (IRR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00, 1.07). 53Mosquito avoidance behaviors were more frequent in the dry season (92.5% vs. 86.0% of 54 interviewees endorsed one or more forms of mosquito prevention, p<0.001). There was also less 55 use of larval elimination strategies (39.2% vs. 50.5%, p<0.001) during the rainy versus the dry 56 season. 57 58 Conclusion 59 Our study reveals a strong effect of relative humidity on vector indices and dengue hospitalization 60 rates. This may be due to the mosquito's vulnerability to desiccation, and the association warrants 61 further study. Our findings also demonstrate, however, that during the rainy season when mosquito 62 prevention is most needed, the use of fans, repellant coils and maintenance of water storage 63 containers is actually reduced. Water storage containers were by far the most productive of pupae, 64 and should be targeted in vector control activities. 65 66 4 67 68 69 Author summary 70 71 Climate plays an important role in the geographic distribution and burden of disease due to dengue, 72 owing to the vector and virus' sensitivity to temperature, humidity, and rainfall. In the Mekong Delta 73 in Vietnam, where dengue poses a significant health burden, average temperatures have increased 74 by 0.5°C since 1980. To better understand the influence of climate on dengue, this study examines 75 its influence on dengue hospitalization rates, vector breeding behavior and human mosquito 76 avoidance behaviors. We sampled 400 households every 2 months for one year for the presence of 77 the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti, and the productivity of different types of household containers. 78Human mosquito avoidance behaviors, such as the use of fans, mosquito repellant, and larval 79 elimination strategies were also recorded. The association between dengue hospitalizations, mean 80 temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and the number of hours of sun were established, and 81 risk factors for the abundance of Ae. aegypti larvae were determined...

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“…Thus, there appears to be a connection between the regional rainfall regime, its susceptibility to alteration under certain types of ENSO event and the pattern of provincial dengue/DHF incidence in terms of timing and possibly also intensity. This result supports findings by Vu et al () in Vietnam, where the authors observed considerable provincial variations in weather‐dengue associations leading them to recommend local rather than national‐level prevention strategies. It also supports the proposal by Hales et al .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The variable impact of ENSO events on regional dengue/DHF in Indonesia

Arcari

Tapper

2017

Singap J Trop Geogr

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Although studies have demonstrated significant associations between ENSO events and dengue fever, few have explored regional impacts on dengue fever of separate events. This study explores the impacts of two ENSO events on regional patterns of dengue/ dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence in Indonesia. Data consist of monthly cases of dengue/DHF from 1992 to 2001 for each of Indonesia's 27 provinces, and monthly figures for rainfall, rainfall anomalies, temperature, relative humidity and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We conducted Pearson correlation analyses for each independent variable against dengue/DHF incidence, using a direct month-by-month correlation and applying a lag of between one and six months to each variable with respect to dengue/DHF incidence. Based on the SOI value, we identified two ENSO events between 1992 and 2001. To explore each event, we created two dummy variables and in regression analyses for eight provinces. The variance of between 12.9 per cent and 24.5 per cent in provincial dengue/DHF incidence is explained by two or three climate variables in each of the provinces (p < 0.01 to 0.1). During the 1997/98 event, the explained variance increased by between 7 per cent and 15 per cent in provinces whose climate regimes were most affected by this event. This study demonstrates that indicators of ENSO such as the SOI may assist in the forecast of potential dengue/DHF incidence and distribution in Indonesia.

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Regional Differences in the Growing Incidence of Dengue Fever in Vietnam Explained by Weather Variability

Cited by 39 publications

References 30 publications

Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan

Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan

Associations between meteorological variables, vector indices and dengue hospitalizations in Can Tho, Vietnam: a field survey

The variable impact of ENSO events on regional dengue/DHF in Indonesia

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