Regional climate model simulations as input for hydrological applications: evaluation of uncertainties

Kotlarski, Sven; Block, Alexander; Böhm, Uwe; Jacob, Daniela; Keuler, Klaus; Knoche, R.; Rechid, Diana; Walter, Andreas

doi:10.5194/adgeo-5-119-2005

Cited by 72 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 7 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…CLM1 captures the very fine-scale variability of temperature because of its finer resolution of the orographic and land-surface gradients. As pointed out by Kotlarski et al (2005), the use of fine horizontal resolution is expected to allow more realistic representation of orographically controlled local meteorological features. 1970-1975 1991-2000 …”

Section: Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

Tölle

Schefczyk

Gutjahr

2017

Theor Appl Climatol

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5-and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change.

show abstract

Section: Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

Tölle

Schefczyk

Gutjahr

2017

Theor Appl Climatol

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Moreover, the precipitation, especially in mountainous areas, is affected by a systematic measurement bias, mainly caused by the deflection of the hydrometeors in the wind field above the gauge orifice and by the snow drift into the gauge that involves an undercatchment of precipitation [Frei and Schär, 1998]. Another problem for observations in areas with complex orography is the low-elevation station bias that is caused by the smaller number of stations at high altitudes [Kotlarski et al, 2005]. Some of these problems are relevant also for temperature, but they are especially critical for precipitation [Haslinger et al, 2013].…”

Section: The Observational Data Setsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance evaluation of high-resolution regional climate simulations in the Alpine space and analysis of extreme events

Montesarchio

Zollo

Bucchignani

et al. 2014

J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study aimed to assess the capabilities of high-resolution simulations in reproducing the main features of the climate in the complex topography region of the Alps for the period 1971-2000. This is to provide a reliable tool for impact studies on local scale. Two simulations, driven by ERA-40 Reanalysis, have been carried out, respectively, at spatial resolutions of 0.125°and 0.0715°with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. The model response has been analyzed in terms of 2 m temperature and precipitation, and comparisons with available observations have been carried out. A number of climate indices have also been analyzed, widely adopted to monitor changes in extreme climate events. Finally, the effects of increasing spatial resolution have also been investigated. The model at high spatial resolution (0.0715°) provides a satisfactory representation of temperature. The simulated precipitation patterns are also improved due to the high model resolution that allows reproducing localized precipitation phenomena with a medium-high error, especially where summer thunderstorms over the complex topography of the Alpine region occurs.

show abstract

“…Comprehensive evaluations of RCMs have been undertaken over the EuroMediterranean region by applying evaluation metrics to mean values of precipitation (Déqué and Somot, 2010;Fisher et al, 2012;Jacob et al, 2007;Kjellström et al, 2010;Kotlarski et al, 2005) as well as focusing on extreme precipitation associated with hydrological floods (Frei et al, 2006;Fowler et al, 2007b;Herrera et al, 2010;Kysel et al, 2012;Maraun et al, 2012). For recent EMCORDEX models, initial evaluations over past periods have been conducted over Europe Katragkou et al, 2015;Kotlarski et al, 2014).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

Colmet-Daage

Sánchez-Gómez

Ricci

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and Med-CORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981-2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

show abstract

Regional climate model simulations as input for hydrological applications: evaluation of uncertainties

Cited by 72 publications

References 7 publications

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

Performance evaluation of high-resolution regional climate simulations in the Alpine space and analysis of extreme events

Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About