Regional characteristics of climate change altering effects of afforestation

Abstract

Climatic effects of forest cover change have been investigated for Hungary. For the time period 2071-100 we have analyzed whether the climate change signal for summer precipitation and the probability of droughts can be reduced assuming maximal afforestation for the entire country (forests covering all vegetated areas). The biogeophysical effects of land cover change have been assessed using the results of an A1B IPCC-SRES emission scenario from REMO (regional climate model at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg). The simulation results indicate that afforestation may reduce the projected climate change through higher evapotranspiration and precipitation as well as lower surface temperature for the entire summer period. The magnitude of the feedback of the forest cover increase on precipitation differs among regions. The strongest effects are visible in the northeastern part of the country. Here, half of the projected precipitation decrease can be relieved and the total number of drought events can be reduced, assuming maximal afforestation. Afforestation brings about the smallest climatic effect in the southwestern region, in the area that shows the strongest climate change. The results can help to identify areas where forest cover increase should most effectively support the alleviation of climate change effects.

Regional-Scale Assessment of the Climatic Role of Forests Under Future Climate Conditions

“…In the most climate change affected regions climatic effects of afforestation are relatively small. But in other regions they can play an important role in reducing the probability and severity of climatic extremes (Gálos et al, 2011). These sensitivity studies confirm, that at the end of the 21st century in the regions, which are the most affected by climate change, vegetation feedbacks have weaker influence on the atmospheric circulation in comparison to the greenhouse gas forcing (Betts, 2007;Wramneby et al, 2010) and afforestation is not a substitute for reduced greenhouse gas emissions (Arora & Montenegro, 2011).…”

“…Change of the summer precipitation sum (dP) due to emission change (2071-2100 vs. 1961-1990), due to maximal afforestation (2071-2100) and due to emission change + maximal afforestation in Hungary and in the three investigated regions (SWH: southwestern part of Hungary, SEH: southeastern part of Hungary, NEH: northeastern part of Hungary). Adapted from: Gálos et al, 2011 For the regions SWH and NEH as well as for the area with the largest increase of forest cover (SEH) the magnitude of the effects of forest cover increase on the summer precipitation sum has been compared to the magnitude of the projected climate change signal. For all three regions and for the whole area of Hungary the precipitation change due to emission changes and the precipitation change due to maximal afforestation have opposite effect (figure 10).…”

“…Here, for precipitation, more than half of the projected climate change signal can be relieved with enhanced forest cover (figure 10). These effects can play a major role in mitigating of the probability and severity of droughts in this region (Gálos et al, 2011).…”

Biogeophysical impacts of peatland forestation on regional climate changes in Finland

“…This "delta change approach" is adopted to eliminate the uncertainties related to model bias (Gálos et al, 2011;Jacob et al, 2008).…”

“…The influences on the climate from the biogeophysical effects caused by land cover changes can enhance or reduce the projected climate change (Bathiany et al, 2010;Bonan, 2008;Feddema et al, 2005;Gálos et al, 2011;Göttel et al, 2008;Ge and Zou, 2013;Pielke et al, 2011Pielke et al, , 1998Pitman, 2003). Especially for the climate impacts of past large-scale afforestation, studies show that the most obvious effects of the increase of forests in boreal areas are warming during snow-cover periods due to decreased surface albedo and cooling in summertime from increased evapotranspiration (ET) in tropical areas with sufficient soil moisture (Bala et al, 2007;Betts, 2000;Betts et al, 2007).…”