Regional ash fall hazard I: a probabilistic assessment methodology

Jenkins, Susanna F.; Magill, Christina; McAneney, John; Blong, Russell

doi:10.1007/s00445-012-0627-8

Cited by 76 publications

(92 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Tephra fall is commonly the most widespread volcanic hazard (Jenkins et al 2012). Despite the wide reach, about 80% of fatal incidents occur within 20 km (Figs.…”

Section: Severalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Under-recording increases further back in time and varies considerably between regions and with eruption size (e.g. Jenkins et al 2012). Auker et al (2013) found that the average number of fatalities per fatal incident increases back in time over the last four centuries, indicating that small events were less well recorded than large ones.…”

Section: Data Completeness and Variation Of Fatal Incidents With Timementioning

confidence: 99%

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Volcanic fatalities database: analysis of volcanic threat with distance and victim classification

et al. 2017

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Volcanoes can produce far-reaching hazards that extend distances of tens or hundreds of kilometres in large eruptions, or in certain conditions for smaller eruptions. About a tenth of the world's population lives within the potential footprint of volcanic hazards and lives are regularly lost through volcanic activity: volcanic fatalities were recorded in 18 of the last 20 years. This paper identifies the distance and distribution of fatalities around volcanoes and the activities of the victims at the time of impact, sourced from an extensive search of academic and grey literature, including media and official reports. We update and expand a volcano fatality database to include all data from 1500 AD to 2017. This database contains 635 records of 278,368 fatalities. Each record contains information on the number of fatalities, fatal cause, incident date and the fatality location in terms of distance from the volcano. Distance data were previously available in just 5% of fatal incidents: these data have been significantly increased to 72% (456/635) of fatal incidents, with fatalities recorded from inside the crater to more than 100 km from the summit. Local residents are the most frequently killed, but tourists, volcanologists and members of the media are also identified as common victims. These latter groups and residents of small islands dominate the proximal fatality record up to 5 km from the volcano. Though normally accounting for small numbers of fatalities, ballistics are the most common cause of fatal incidents at this distance. Pyroclastic density currents are the dominant fatal cause at 5 to 15 km. Lahars, tsunami and tephra dominate the record after about 15 km. The new location data are used to characterise volcanic threat with distance, as a function of eruption size and hazard type, and to understand how certain activities increase exposure and the likelihood of death. These findings support assessment of volcanic threat, population exposure and vulnerabilities related to occupation or activity.

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“…Tephra fall is commonly the most widespread volcanic hazard (Jenkins et al 2012). Despite the wide reach, about 80% of fatal incidents occur within 20 km (Figs.…”

Section: Severalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data Completeness and Variation Of Fatal Incidents With Timementioning

confidence: 99%

Volcanic fatalities database: analysis of volcanic threat with distance and victim classification

et al. 2017

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“…Under-recording of volcanic eruptions in the LaMEVE and companion databases such as the Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program (Global Volcanism Program, 2013) is a well-known problem (e.g., Newhall and Self, 1982;Simkin, 1993;Siebert et al, 2010;Brown et al, 2014, Rougier et al, 2016: the further back one goes from the present, the fewer eruptions have been reported, with the recording rate of smaller eruptions decaying more rapidly than for larger eruptions. Various strategies have been taken to both characterise and correct for the incompleteness of the record (e.g., Coles and Sparks, 2006;Marzocchi and Zaccarelli, 2006;Deligne et al, 2010;Furlan, 2010;Jenkins et al, 2012;Mead and Magill, 2014;Kiyosugi et al, 2015;Rougier et al, 2016) to characterise magnitude-frequency relationships and other properties. However, a potential issue is whether LaMEVE disproportionately "samples" a few volcanoes, introducing biases and potentially compromising its analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Report on potential sampling biases in the LaMEVE database of global volcanism

2017

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We investigate whether the disproportionate contribution of individual volcanoes in the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruption database (LaMEVE) potentially compromises the treatment of LaMEVE as a globally representative database of volcanic activity. We find that 41% of volcanoes which contribute at least one eruption to LaMEVE only contribute one eruption (10% of all eruptions), and the six most prolific volcanoes contribute 11% of eruptions. However, there is no systematic bias with respect to the eruption magnitude or date for volcanoes contributing one eruption. Also, no bias can be discerned for when the smallest or largest eruption at a volcano occurs in its eruptive record. Half of the volcanoes contributing one or more eruptions to the LaMEVE database had their first eruption prior to 36.4 ka. We find LaMEVE is representative -while there are well-known issues of eruption under-reporting, LaMEVE is not overly biased by the activity of a few volcanoes.

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“…3b). Note that breaks-in-slope associated with completeness might vary as a function of the VEI/magnitude class and should be assessed separately (Biass and Bonadonna 2013;Dzierma and Wehrmann 2010;Jenkins et al 2012;Mendoza-Rosas and De la CruzReyna 2008).…”

Section: Eruptive Historymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the latter case, the hazard is quantified as a probability to exceed a given tephra accumulation and can be expressed either as conditional to the occurrence of the eruption scenario (e.g. scenariobased hazard assessment; Biass et al 2016;Bonadonna et al 2005;Scaini et al 2014;Volentik and Houghton 2015) or as absolute when the long-term probability of the eruption scenario is also quantified (Bear-Crozier et al 2016;Jenkins et al 2012;Marzocchi and Bebbington 2012;Sandri et al 2014Sandri et al , 2016Thompson et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

TephraProb: a Matlab package for probabilistic hazard assessments of tephra fallout

et al. 2016

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TephraProb is a toolbox of Matlab functions designed to produce scenario-based probabilistic hazard assessments for ground tephra accumulation based on the Tephra2 model. The toolbox includes a series of graphical user interfaces that collect, analyze and pre-process input data, create distributions of eruption source parameters based on a wide range of probabilistic eruption scenarios, run Tephra2 using the generated input scenarios and provide results as exceedence probability maps, probabilistic isomass maps and hazard curves. We illustrate the functionality of TephraProb using the 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile) and selected eruptions of La Fossa volcano (Vulcano Island, Italy). The range of eruption styles captured by these two events highlights the potential of TephraProb as an operative tool when rapid hazard assessments are required during volcanic crises.

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Regional ash fall hazard I: a probabilistic assessment methodology

Cited by 76 publications

References 20 publications

Volcanic fatalities database: analysis of volcanic threat with distance and victim classification

Volcanic fatalities database: analysis of volcanic threat with distance and victim classification

Report on potential sampling biases in the LaMEVE database of global volcanism

TephraProb: a Matlab package for probabilistic hazard assessments of tephra fallout

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