Regional and Urban-Rural Differences in Carbon Emissions of Chinese Residents: Dynamic Evolution and Structural Decomposition

Abstract

Promoting energy conservation and emission reduction and achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality is a systematic project that requires the joint efforts of the whole society. Accurate measurement and analysis of the basic state and spatial correlation of urban-rural carbon emissions is the basic prerequisite for formulating the "double carbon" policy. This study aims to analyze the regional disparities in urban-rural carbon emissions in China from 2005 to 2021 and to assess the degree of inequality in such emissions. The IPCC methodology was employed to calculate the carbon emissions of urban and rural areas in each province. The Theil coefficient was utilized to delineate the spatial evolution of urban-rural carbon emission disparities in China. The decomposition of the Theil index was adopted to investigate the sources and shifts in spatial disparities. The local Moran's I was applied to analyze the spatial correlation of urban and rural carbon emissions in China. Additionally, the Theil index was employed to measure the degree of urban-rural carbon emission inequality in each province. Based on the natural breakpoint grading method, the spatial heterogeneity of the urban-rural carbon emission inequality across various Chinese provinces was scrutinized. Findings: China's urban-rural carbon emission inequality exhibited a three-phase transformation, predominantly influenced by intraregional factors, with the Northeast region making a significant contribution. Spatially, eastern coastal and inland provinces like Hebei and Shandong exhibited higher carbon emissions, whereas western provinces such as Gansu and Qinghai showed lower levels. The majority of regions witnessed their emission disparities transition from mid-low to mid-high. However, challenges related to insufficient and imbalanced development remained prominent. Specifically, economically advanced regions like Guangdong and Jiangsu manifested substantial emission disparities, while western provinces like Sichuan displayed smaller disparities.