Regional and seasonal characteristics of global horizontal irradiance forecasts obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency mesoscale model

Ohtake, Hideaki; Fonseca, Joao Gari da Silva; Takashima, Takumi; Oozeki, Takashi; Shimose, Ken-ichi; Yamada, Yoshiyuki

doi:10.1016/j.solener.2015.03.020

Cited by 37 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…However, few studies have been focused on the comparison of operational NWP models with satellite-derived data [13,15,[23][24][25][26]. These previous works have shown that, as in the case of reanalysis data, forecast models overestimate R s in general compared to the ground-based measurements.…”

Section: Discussion and Outlookmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In contrast, [13] found a positive MBE using WRF for the four seasons of the year. Additionally, [25,26] have also obtained a different trend in the MBE statistical score when comparing the summer with the winter seasons, using the Japan Meteorological Agency mesoscale model (MSM). However, although the current study shows an underestimation of the observations using the RAMS model during the winter season, the MSM produces an overestimation of the observations during this season of the year over Japan.…”

Section: Discussion and Outlookmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, a comprehensive study conducted by [15] dealt with the comparison of several NWP solar irradiance forecasts in the US, Canada and Europe. Finally, [25,26] have evaluated in these same terms the NWP meteorological mesoscale model (MSM) developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) over Japan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Seasonal Characterization of Solar Radiation Estimates Obtained from a MSG-SEVIRI-Derived Dataset and a RAMS-Based Operational Forecasting System over the Western Mediterranean Coast

2016

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Solar radiation is a key factor in the Earth's energy balance and it is used as a crucial input parameter in many disciplines such as ecology, agriculture, solar energy and hydrology. Thus, accurate information of the global downward surface shortwave flux integration into the grid is of significant importance. From the different strategies used for grid integration of the surface solar radiation estimates, satellite-derived and numerical weather prediction forecasts are two interesting alternatives. In the current work, we present a comprehensive evaluation of the global downward solar radiation forecasts provided by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and the Downwelling Surface Shortwave Flux (DSSF) product, derived from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). Both solar radiation estimates are compared to thirteen ground-based weather station measurements for the winter 2010-2011 and the summer 2011 seasons. For these periods, the most recent versions of RAMS (4.4 and 6.0) were running in parallel within the real-time weather forecasting system implemented over the Valencia Region. The solar radiation performance and accuracy are evaluated for these datasets segmented into two atmospheric conditions (clear and cloudy skies) and two terrain classes (flat and hilly). DSSF shows a very good agreement over the study area. Statistical daily evaluations show that corresponding errors vary between seasons, with absolute bias ranging from´30 to 40 W¨m´2, absolute root mean square errors (RMSE) from 25 to 60 W¨m´2, relative bias ranging from´11% to 7% and relative RMSE from 7% to 22%, depending on the sky condition and the terrain location as well, thus reproducing the observations more faithfully than RAMS, which produces higher errors in comparison to the measurements. In this regard, statistical daily evaluations show absolute bias values varying from´50 to 160 W¨m´2, absolute RMSE from 60 to 240 W¨m´2, relative bias ranging from´30% to 40% and relative RMSE from 10% to 80%, also depending on the daily initialization and the forecast horizon. This bias variability demonstrates that there is a different trend in the deviation of the model results in relation to the observations, both for the DSSF product and RAMS forecasts, and considering the summer and the winter seasons independently. In this regard, although there is an overestimation of the observed solar radiation within the summer months, this magnitude is underestimated during the winter. Finally, comparing this solar radiation estimates for different atmospheric conditions and different terrain classes, the best results are found under clear skies over flat terrain. This result is achieved using both methodologies.

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Section: Discussion and Outlookmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussion and Outlookmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Seasonal Characterization of Solar Radiation Estimates Obtained from a MSG-SEVIRI-Derived Dataset and a RAMS-Based Operational Forecasting System over the Western Mediterranean Coast

2016

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“…Among the available algorithms, it is worth mentioning the Heliosat-2 method (Raschke et al, 1987;Rigollier et al, 2004;Blanc et al, 2011), the State University of New York (SUNY) model (Perez et al, 2002), the Surface Insolation under Clear and Cloudy skies model (SICCS; Greuell et al, 2013), and more sophisticated radiative transfer models (e.g., Pinker and Laszlo, 1992) and algorithms based on neural network models (e.g., Takenaka et al, 2011;Taylor et al, 2016). Because of its unprecedented temporal resolution (up to 2.5 min), the new Japanese geostationary meteorological satellite Himawari-8 is expected shortly to attain a key position within this framework, drastically improving atmospheric research (Bessho et al, 2016) and forecasts of photovoltaic power generation (e.g., Ohtake et al, 2013Ohtake et al, , 2015.…”

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confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Himawari-8 surface downwelling solar radiation by ground-based measurements

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Observations from the new Japanese geostationary satellite Himawari-8 permit quasi-real-time estimation of global shortwave radiation at an unprecedented temporal resolution. However, accurate comparisons with groundtruthing observations are essential to assess their uncertainty. In this study, we evaluated the Himawari-8 global radiation product AMATERASS using observations recorded at four SKYNET stations in Japan and, for certain analyses, from the surface network of the Japanese Meteorological Agency in 2016. We found that the spatiotemporal variability of the satellite estimates was smaller than that of the ground observations; variability decreased with increases in the time step and spatial domain. Cloud variability was the main source of uncertainty in the satellite radiation estimates, followed by direct effects caused by aerosols and bright albedo. Under all-sky conditions, good agreement was found between satellite and ground-based data, with a mean bias in the range of 20-30 W m −2 (i.e., AMATERASS overestimated ground observations) and a root mean square error (RMSE) of approximately 70-80 W m −2 . However, results depended on the time step used in the validation exercise, on the spatial domain, and on the different climatological regions. In particular, the validation performed at 2.5 min showed largest deviations and RMSE values ranging from about 110 W m −2 for the mainland to a maximum of 150 W m −2 in the subtropical region. We also detected a limited overestimation in the number of clear-sky episodes, particularly at the pixel level. Overall, satellite-based estimates were higher under overcast conditions, whereas frequent episodes of cloud-induced enhanced surface radiation (i.e., measured radiation was greater than expected clear-sky radiation) tended to reduce this difference. Finally, the total mean bias was approximately 10-15 W m −2 under clear-sky conditions, mainly because of overall instantaneous direct aerosol forcing efficiency in the range of 120-150 W m −2 per unit of aerosol optical depth (AOD). A seasonal anticorrelation between AOD and global radiation differences was evident at all stations and was also observed within the diurnal cycle.

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“…Authors performed a validation of GHI day-ahead forecasts from the JMA NWPs and investigated forecast error characteristics [1,2] in cooperation with the JMA. An estimation of confidence intervals of hourly GHI forecasts has been investigated [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A case study of outlier event on solar irradiance forecasts from the two NWPs with different horizontal resolutions

Ohtake

Takashima

Oozeki

et al. 2016

Renew. Energy Environ. Sustain.

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Abstract. Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is directly effected by global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and has also large variations in spatial and/or temporal scales. For a safety control of an energy management system (EMS), a day-ahead forecast or several hour forecast of solar irradiance by a numerical weather prediction model (NWP) becomes important for a control of reserve capacity (thermal power generation, etc.). In particular, a large forecast error of PV power and/or GHI forecasts has to be prevented in the EMS. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) developed two NWPs with different horizontal resolutions. First one is a mesoscale model with horizontal grid spacing of 5 km and second one is a local forecast model with that of 2 km. The two NWPs have been used as an operational model in JMA. In this study, GHI forecasts obtained from the two models are validated and conducted a case study for large forecast error (outlier events) case of GHI.

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Regional and seasonal characteristics of global horizontal irradiance forecasts obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency mesoscale model

Cited by 37 publications

References 19 publications

Seasonal Characterization of Solar Radiation Estimates Obtained from a MSG-SEVIRI-Derived Dataset and a RAMS-Based Operational Forecasting System over the Western Mediterranean Coast

Seasonal Characterization of Solar Radiation Estimates Obtained from a MSG-SEVIRI-Derived Dataset and a RAMS-Based Operational Forecasting System over the Western Mediterranean Coast

Evaluation of Himawari-8 surface downwelling solar radiation by ground-based measurements

A case study of outlier event on solar irradiance forecasts from the two NWPs with different horizontal resolutions

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