Regional and global projections of twenty-first century glacier mass changes in response to climate scenarios from global climate models

Radić, Valentina; Bliss, Andrew; Beedlow, A. C.; Hock, Regine; Miles, Evan; Cogley, J. Graham

doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1719-7

Cited by 393 publications

(392 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…As a result of increasing air temperatures, a decrease in glacier extent is projected for all basins for all ensemble members despite the projected precipitation increase in most ensemble members (Supplementary Table 6). Our basin-scale estimates of future glacier changes are in good agreement with previous large-scale work 22 .…”

supporting

confidence: 90%

Consistent increase in High Asia's runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation

et al. 2014

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Rivers originating in the high mountains of Asia are among the most meltwater-dependent river systems on Earth, yet large human populations depend on their resources downstream 1 . Across High Asia's river basins, there is large variation in the contribution of glacier and snow melt to total runo 2 , which is poorly quantified. The lack of understanding of the hydrological regimes of High Asia's rivers is one of the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the regional hydrological impacts of climate change 3 . Here we use a large-scale, high-resolution cryospheric-hydrological model to quantify the upstream hydrological regimes of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Salween and Mekong rivers. Subsequently, we analyse the impacts of climate change on future water availability in these basins using the latest climate model ensemble. Despite large di erences in runo composition and regimes between basins and between tributaries within basins, we project an increase in runo at least until 2050 caused primarily by an increase in precipitation in the upper Ganges, Brahmaputra, Salween and Mekong basins and from accelerated melt in the upper Indus Basin. These findings have immediate consequences for climate change policies where a transition towards coping with intra-annual shifts in water availability is desirable.

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supporting

confidence: 90%

Consistent increase in High Asia's runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation

et al. 2014

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“…Finally, we should note that although we have focused on Qeqqata municipality in west Greenland, much of this study is relevant for many other areas, particularly in western Greenland. The retreat of the ice caps south of the fjord Kangerlussuaq is consistent with modeling by several groups focused on small glaciers and ice caps globally (e.g., Radić et al 2014;Huss and Hock 2015;Marzeion, Jarosch, and Hofer 2012), suggesting that many of the small local glaciers will disappear from Greenland before the end of the 21st century, particularly under the high emissions RCP8.5 scenario.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

21st-century climate change around Kangerlussuaq, west Greenland: From the ice sheet to the shores of Davis Strait

Boberg

Langen

Mottram

et al. 2018

Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research

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Using regional climate-model runs with a horizontal resolution of 5.5 km for two future scenarios and two time slices (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5; 2031-2050 and 2081-2100 relative to a historical period (1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010), we study the climate change for the Qeqqata municipality in general and for Kangerlussuaq in particular. The climate-model runs are validated against observations of temperature and surface mass balance and a reanalysis simulation with the same model setup as the scenario runs, providing high confidence in the results. Clear increases in temperature and precipitation for the end of the 21st century are shown, both on and off the ice sheet, with an off-ice sheet mean annual temperature increase of 2.5-3°C for the RCP4.5 scenario and 4.8-6.0°C for the RCP8.5 scenario, and for precipitation an increase of 20-30% for the RCP4.5 scenario and 30-80% for the RCP8.5 scenario. Climate analogs for Kangerlussuaq for temperature and precipitation are provided, indicating that end-of-the-century Kangerlussuaq mean annual temperature is comparable with temperatures for the south of Greenland today. The extent of glacial retreat is also estimated for the Qeqqata municipality, suggesting that most of the ice caps south of the Kangerlussuaq fjord will be gone before the end of this century. Furthermore, the high-resolution runs are compared with an ensemble of six models run at a 50 km resolution, showing the need for high-resolution model simulations over Greenland. ARTICLE HISTORY

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“…By 2100, they find that the accumulation area of all glacierized areas in Svalbard will disappear, with a contribution of ∼7 mm SLE corresponding to a loss of 31 % of present volume. This contribution is ∼25-50 % of previous estimates [90,93], with the large differences suggested to reflect the lower resolution climate models and more simplified SMB models used in the earlier studies.…”

Section: Glacier and Ice Sheet Projections Glaciersmentioning

confidence: 62%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Clark

Church

Gregory

et al. 2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5's assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003-2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993-2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likel...

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Regional and global projections of twenty-first century glacier mass changes in response to climate scenarios from global climate models

Cited by 393 publications

References 32 publications

Consistent increase in High Asia's runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation

Consistent increase in High Asia's runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation

21st-century climate change around Kangerlussuaq, west Greenland: From the ice sheet to the shores of Davis Strait

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

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