Regime Shifts Found in the Northern Hemisphere SST Field.

Yasunaka, Sayaka; Hanawa, Kimio

doi:10.2151/jmsj.80.119

Cited by 139 publications

(100 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(41 reference statements)

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“…Significant changes appearing widely in the global SST anomaly field were found five times from the 1910s to the 1990s, which is consistent with the NH regime shifts already reported by previous studies (Overland et al, 1999;Yasunaka and Hanawa, 2002). It was also found that all the regime shifts happened concurrently with the ENSO events.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…The regime shifts detected here are consistent well with the NH regime shifts already reported by previous studies (Overland et al, 1999;Yasunaka and Hanawa, 2002). In particular, the 1976-77 shift has been noted and described by many studies (e.g.…”

Section: Detection Of Global Regime Shiftssupporting

confidence: 93%

“…In the early 1970s, the NAO index exhibited a sharp reversal from a downward trend (Hurrell, 1995). The 1988-89 regime shift was also pointed out by many previous studies, as well as the other shifts (Tachibana et al, 1996;Yasunaka and Hanawa, 2002). However, since changes in 1988-89 are confined in the NH in the JFM season and have almost no signal in the SH, it is not regarded as a regime shift in the global ocean (not shown here) in the present study.…”

Section: Detection Of Global Regime Shiftssupporting

confidence: 79%

“…Nitta and Yamada, 1989;Minobe, 1997). Actually, Yasunaka and Hanawa (2002) detected six regime shifts during the period from the 1910s to the mid 1990s. Studies have also pointed out that the decadal-scale variations accompany the variations in SSTs and atmospheric circulation fields in the Southern Hemisphere (SH; e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

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Regime shift in the global sea‐surface temperatures: its relation to El Niño–southern oscillation events and dominant variation modes

Yasunaka

Hanawa

2005

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Significant changes of mean state appearing widely in the global sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly field have happened five times from the 1910s to the 1990s : 1925, 1942, 1957, 1970 and 1976. Since the regions of change spread over both hemispheres and/or multiple oceanic basins, they can be considered as 'global regime shifts'. The years of regime shifts are consistent with those of the Northern Hemisphere regime shifts reported by previous studies.It is also shown that the regime shifts have happened concurrently with El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) events, which seems to suggest that the ENSO event acts as a trigger of the regime shift. At the regime shift, the tropical Pacific SSTs change from La Niña (El Niño) to El Niño (La Niña) conditions within 1 year. Further, the ENSO events occur just after the regime shifts begin in the July to September (JAS) season and reach the mature phase in the January to March (JFM) season as a typical evolution of the ENSO events. After that, they continue to at least the next year.The five regime shifts detected have similar features in their seasonal evolution and persistence of signals. First, the shifts start in the JAS season: an SST change occurs in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, and a change in the mid-latitudes of the North and South Pacific appears with the opposite sign. Then the shifts in the JFM season. The spatial patterns are similar to those of the JAS season, but signals in the North Pacific become remarkable. These features resemble those corresponding to a series of evolutions of ENSO events, but the signals in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are much stronger than those of the typical ENSO events. After the shifts have happened, the changes in spatial patterns of SST that occurred at the regime shift persist until the next shift. The persistence of signals is more prominent in the JFM season than in the JAS season.From a review of the dominant variation modes in global SSTs using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses, four modes are identified: the ENSO mode, the Southern Hemisphere trend mode, the North Pacific (NP) mode, and the Arctic oscillation (AO) mode. In the years when regime shifts occur, the ENSO mode, the NP mode, and the AO mode show significant concurrent phase reversals on the global scale as previously shown in the Northern Hemisphere. These findings provide a possible reason why SST changes in the regime shift are similar but not exactly the same pattern as that of ENSO. Furthermore, it can be considered that a simultaneous phase reversal of the NP mode would suppress the growth of anticyclonic (or cyclonic) circulation in the atmosphere over the western tropical Pacific. This suggests that an ENSO event, which begins with a regime shift, would not reverse its condition and last for the following several seasons.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Detection Of Global Regime Shiftssupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Detection Of Global Regime Shiftssupporting

confidence: 79%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Regime shift in the global sea‐surface temperatures: its relation to El Niño–southern oscillation events and dominant variation modes

Yasunaka

Hanawa

2005

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…In addition, some studies have examined the origin of the North Pacific regime shift in the winter of 1988/1989, arguing that this regime shift in the North Pacific is not very related to the tropical SST forcing, unlike the 1976/1977 climate regime shift [Tanaka et al, 1996;Walsh et al, 1996;Overland et al, 1999;Watanabe and Nitta, 1999;Hare and Mantua, 2000;Yasunaka and Hanawa, 2002;Yeh et al, 2011]. To be specific, the mean SST change in the North Pacific in the winter of 1988/1989 regime shift was not accompanied with a change in the mean SST in the tropical Pacific.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A possible mechanism for the North Pacific regime shift in winter of 1998/1999

Yeh

Kim

2013

Geophysical Research Letters

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This study examines a possible mechanism for the North Pacific regime shift in the winter of 1998/1999. Since the 1976/1977 climate regime shift, the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific has exhibited a long‐term warming trend in the western and central regions, which is mainly due to the two regime shifts that occurred in the winter of 1988/1989 and 1998/1999, respectively. In particular, the 1998/1999 regime shift is characterized by a dipole‐like structure along 40°N where a significant warming is prominent in the southwestern and central North Pacific. The slow dynamic adjustments of SST and zonal wind to the meridional heat exchange through thermal advection may be responsible for the 1998/1999 regime shift. We also assert that an intrinsic multidecadal SST oscillation in the North Pacific contributes to the 1998/1999 regime shift. Furthermore, another possibility, which is associated with the oceanic teleconnection from the tropics to the midlatitude, is also briefly discussed.

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State‐space modeling clarifies productivity regime shifts of Japanese flying squid

et al. 2020

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Regime shifts of climatic and environmental conditions potentially affect the productivity of fishery resources, posing challenges in stock management. The stocks of the Japanese flying squid (Todarodes pacificus) are suspected to suffer from regime shifts, but detecting the occurrence of regime shifts in this species is generally difficult and unreliable because the short‐lived nature of this species inherently confounds the effect of regime shifts with observation and process errors. Here we developed a new state‐space assessment model to evaluate the influence of regime shifts on the spawner‐recruit relationship of the Japanese flying squid. The model simultaneously estimates the population dynamics of multiple stocks that could share some life history parameters, thereby stabilizing parameter inference. We demonstrate that two regime shifts in productivity around 1991 and 2015 caused two‐ to threefold changes of maximum sustainable yields. The model with regime shifts clarifies the relationship between fishing pressure and spawner abundance that is difficult to detect in a model with no regime shift. The state‐space approach is a promising tool for accurately assessing stock status by separating the recruitment process from observation errors and is expected to contribute to the effective management of marine biological resources sensitive to regime shifts.

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Regime Shifts Found in the Northern Hemisphere SST Field.

Cited by 139 publications

References 35 publications

Regime shift in the global sea‐surface temperatures: its relation to El Niño–southern oscillation events and dominant variation modes

Regime shift in the global sea‐surface temperatures: its relation to El Niño–southern oscillation events and dominant variation modes

A possible mechanism for the North Pacific regime shift in winter of 1998/1999

State‐space modeling clarifies productivity regime shifts of Japanese flying squid

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