Refugee Geography and the Diffusion of Armed Conflict in Africa

Existing research argues that refugee inflows may increase the risk of domestic conflict, particularly civil war that, by definition, involves the state as an actor. However, many of the postulated mechanisms linking refugees to a higher risk of such conflict pertain to tensions with locals, which do not necessarily involve any grievances against government authorities. We contend that it is more likely to identify an association between refugees and non-state actor violence, i.e., armed violence between organized non-state groups, neither of which pertains to the state. We also claim that the extent to which refugees are associated with a higher likelihood of non-state conflict depends on the capacity of governments to manage and mitigate risks. We report evidence that refugee populations can be linked to an increased risk of non-state conflict, as well as for a mitigating effect of state capacity on the risk of non-state conflicts in the presence of refugees. We do not find a clear effect of refugee populations on civil war, suggesting that the link depends on existing conflict cleavages relevant to mobilizing refugees or locals. Our research helps to shed light on the relevant security consequences of managing refugee populations. Despite the common arguments portraying refugees as security risks in developed countries, the risk of non-state conflict applies primarily to weak states that have been forced to shoulder a disproportionate burden in hosting refugees.

Section: Empirical Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Blame the victims? Refugees, state capacity, and non-state actor violence

Böhmelt

Bove

Gleditsch

2018

“…Researchers interested in the relationship between population movements and conflict have, in recent years, focused their attention on how refugee populations might affect the onset and dynamics of civil war, or armed conflict between formally organized rebel groups and the state (Fisk, 2014a;Lischer, 2005;Salehyan & Gleditsch, 2006;Shaver & Zhou, 2015). Yet several of the theoretical explanations for the anticipated civil war/ refugees association also link logically to other, non-state forms of violence that have yet to be investigated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Camp settlement and communal conflict in sub-Saharan Africa

Fisk

2019

Self Cite

Are areas that host encamped refugees more likely to experience communal conflict, and under what conditions? Building on insights from the refugee studies literature suggesting that settling refugees in camps can intensify intercommunal tension in host communities, this article investigates the effect of refugee encampment on the occurrence of communal conflict at the subnational level in sub-Saharan Africa. It first tests for a general relationship between the overall presence and population intensity of encamped refugees and communal conflict before assessing whether this relationship is moderated by local-level characteristics, including interethnic linkages and political and economic marginalization within the host region. The basic findings show that communal conflict occurs more frequently in regions where refugees are camp-settled. Tests for interactive effects indicate that refugee camps have a significant marginal effect on conflict only if they are located in areas with politically marginalized host groups. Origin country/host region ethnic ties are shown to exert significant moderating effects. Moreover, results from an extended set of analyses show that the form of refugee settlement matters, as the presence and population intensity of self-settled refugees are related to decreases in the occurrence of communal conflict.

“…The security consequences associated with refugee flows are among the most widely studied aspects of forced migration. There is a large body of literature suggesting that refugee groups are associated with an increased risk of interstate war, civil war, terrorism, and communal violence (Choi & Salehyan, 2013;Fisk, 2014Fisk, , 2018Lischer, 2003Lischer, , 2005Salehyan & Gleditsch, 2006;Salehyan, 2008Salehyan, , 2009Whitaker, 2003;Zolberg, Suhrke & Aguayo, 1989). However, while this research program by and large implies that refugee flows create conditions that increase the risk of political violence, it does not pay sufficient attention to the dynamics of violence against refugees.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From protection to persecution: Threat environment and refugee scapegoating

Savun

Gineste

2018

The security consequences associated with refugee flows are among the most widely studied aspects of forced migration. While the majority of this research program has focused on how refugee movements affect the risk of political violence, scant scholarly attention has been paid to violence perpetrated against refugees. Building upon the state repression literature, we argue that refugees are particularly vulnerable to the violation of their physical integrity rights in the wake of terrorist attacks in host states. Governments are pressured to respond to security crises but prefer to take actions without jeopardizing public support. In this context, refugee groups can be strategically attractive targets of repression because they lack electoral power and citizens are often supportive of government crackdown against foreigners in times of security crises. Given that leaders have stronger incentives to respond to voters’ demands quickly in democracies, we expect the effect of terror attacks on violence against refugees to be stronger in democratic host states. Using a novel global dataset on anti-refugee violence between 1996 and 2015, we show that refugees are more likely to be exposed to violence by the coercive agents of the state in the wake of security crises. We provide suggestive evidence that the repression of refugees is more consistent with a scapegoating mechanism than the actual ties and involvement of refugees in terrorism. The findings reveal that the well-being of uprooted populations is particularly at risk when host countries face a security threat.