“…In general, existing national climate risk assessments that consider drought-relevant risk metrics only explore a small number of future emission scenarios, such changes in soil moisture (United States;Wehner et al, 2017), water resource availability (United Kingdom; HR Wallingford, 2015), or agricultural land suitability (United Kingdom;ECI et al, 2013;Keay et al, 2013), but lack a description of the full range of probabilities and the related economic impacts. Dealing with low-probability and high-consequence outcomes (i.e., the tails of probability distributions) has also been identified as a challenge for climate risk quantification (Weaver et al, 2017). With probabilistic models, a large number of synthetic events can be reproduced providing a more complete picture of the full spectrum of future risks than with historical data (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015).…”