Reflexo pós-pandemia nos preços das ações de três grupos do setor sucroalcooleiro no Brasil

Amorim, Fernando Rodrigues de; Silva, Saulo André; Andrade, Alequexandre Galvez de; Pigatto, Gessuir

doi:10.22279/navus.2021.v11.p01-19.1455

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

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“…In addition to these factors, uncertainties caused by the Covid-19 pandemic have led to imbalances between supply and demand of inputs in the global market, which have influenced significant fluctuations in prices of fertilizers, herbicides, fuel, and other inputs analyzed in this study [43]. The uncertainties stemming from the pandemic have affected all sectors of the agribusiness, from production to distribution and marketing, resulting in negative economic impacts across all segments, particularly in input costs [4,44].…”

Section: Descriptive Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In early 2022, for instance, the prices of corn and soybeans were elevated due to strong global demand [3], rising fertilizer costs [4,5], and the drought in South Ameri-ca caused by the La Niña phenomenon. Another impactful factor for the sector was the war in Ukraine, which contributed to the increase in production costs for all commodities [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forecasting costs and risk of corn and soybean crops through Monte Carlo simulation

Amorim,

Guimarães,

Marcomin

et al. 2023

Preprint

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In Brazil, the production of corn and soybeans has been growing significantly in recent years. Considering that the strategies for investing in the production of these crops are conditioned by production costs and risk, the objective of this article is to propose a simulation model that indicates the trend of production costs for these commodities, considering the dispersion and correlation of selected key variable prices and corn and soybean production costs practiced between the years of 2018 and 2022. Fifty specialized companies in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, provided data for this study, and Monte Carlo simulations showed that the total cost of corn production/ha is between USD 600.00 and USD 1150.00, with a level of certainty of 84.7%, and soybeans are in the range of USD 260.00 to USD 420.00, with a level of certainty of 86.4%. The model evidenced a trend of decreasing production costs for the crops for the 2023/24 and 2024/25 harvests, as the input with the greatest impact (fertilizer) is showing a downward trend. On the other hand, costs related to labor, soybean seed, and fungicides are showing an upward trend, while dolomitic limestone corrective remains stable.

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Section: Descriptive Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%