Reflections on the future role of the state in Somalia from the perspective of aid effectiveness

Abstract

The adoption of the Provisional Constitution in 2012, peaceful presidential elections in 2012 and 2017, and a certain regularization of Somalia's political processes, have represented the return to a path of political stabilization and reconstruction. After almost 30 years of conflict, instability and challenges in Somalia, the achievement of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) decision

Understanding Somalia's social contract and state-building efforts: Consequences for donor interventions

“…Given the relatively limited domestic revenue potential over the mid-to long-term perspective, it is highly likely that the FGS and the FMS will continue to focus on security spending at the expense of social sectors. As such, they will remain a relatively marginal player in delivering social services (Raballand et al 2021). Citizens instead rely on their local mix of informal clan structures, NGOs, and private sector actors for basic needs and services.…”

“…This paper uses social contract analysis 2 to reflect on Somalia's development challenges and the role of donor engagement (Raballand et al 2021). Building on the framework developed in a recent World Bank study on social contracts in sub-Saharan Africa (Cloutier et al 2021), the paper explores the nature of the social contract in Somalia in quantitative and qualitative ways through three compasses: (1) the citizen-state bargaining process;…”

“…In 1974, spending on economic and social services was 24 per cent and 16 per cent, respectively. By 1988 that had been reduced to 11 and 4 percent(Raballand et al 2021).…”

“…This section will not focus on state capacity and low demand for services. This is developed in more detail inRaballand et al (2021).20 Somalia spends more on the security sector as a percentage of its budget than any other fragile state, except for Afghanistan. The largest budget item within the security sector is the estimated 40,000-45,000 armed personnel (army, police, paramilitary) who receive some level of compensation from the state (World Bank 2017b).…”