Refined Ephemeris for Four Hot Jupiters Using Ground-Based and TESS Observations

Davoudi, Fatemeh; MirshafieKhozani, PegahSadat; Paki, Ehsan; Roshana, M.; Hasheminasab, F.; MazidabadiFarahani, Ahmad; Farahani, Farzaneh Ahangarani; Farjadnia, Tayebeh; Farshid, Nasrollahzadeh,; Shiva, Rezvanpanah,; Mousavi, S. Mohammad Mahdi; Foroughi, Rahimeh; Poro, Atila; Ghalee, Amir

doi:10.1134/s1063773721090024

“…Many studies using ETD observations refit the light curves (e.g., Baluev et al 2015;Mallonn et al 2019;Davoudi et al 2021;. However, the different formats of the observations, both in terms of the machine-readable table format (comma-separated, tab-separated, etc.)…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence of Long-term Period Variations in the Exoplanet Transit Database (ETD)

Hagey¹,

Edwards²,

Boley³

2022

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We analyze a large number of citizen science data and identify eight hot Jupiter systems that show evidence for deviations from a constant orbital period: HAT-P-19 b, HAT-P-32 b, TrES-1 b, TrES-2 b, TrES-5 b, WASP-4 b, WASP-10 b, and WASP-12 b. The latter system is already well known to exhibit strong evidence for tidal orbital decay and serves as an important control for this study. Several other systems we identify have disputed period drifts in the literature, allowing the results here to serve as an independent analysis. The citizen science data are from the Exoplanet Transit Database (ETD), which is a global project established in 2008 by the Variable Star and Exoplanet Section of the Czech Astronomical Society. With over 400 planets and 12,000 contributed observations spanning 15 yr, the ETD is brimming with potential for studying the long-term orbital evolution of close-in hot Jupiters. We use our results to discuss prioritization of targets for follow-up investigations, which will be necessary to confirm the period drifts and their causes.

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“…Since each of these papers also included different subsets of ETD transits, care had to be taken to avoid duplication of data points. No evidence for timing change was seen in Petrucci et al (2018), though an increase in period was noted by Davoudi et al (2021). We see a preference for a quadratic model with positive curvature, with ΔBIC = 109 and a 2.6σ detection of dP/dE = 21.6 ± 8.2 ms yr −1 .…”

Section: Notementioning

confidence: 61%

“…Several previous timing analyses of WASP-46 b exist, including Ciceri et al (2016), Moyano et al (2017), Petrucci et al (2018), andDavoudi et al (2021). Since each of these papers also included different subsets of ETD transits, care had to be taken to avoid duplication of data points.…”

Section: Notementioning

confidence: 99%

Doomed Worlds. I. No New Evidence for Orbital Decay in a Long-term Survey of 43 Ultrahot Jupiters

Adams,

Jackson,

Sickafoose

et al. 2024

Planet. Sci. J.

3

0

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Ultrahot Jupiters (UHJs) are likely doomed by tidal forces to undergo orbital decay and eventual disruption by their stars, but the timescale over which this process unfolds is unknown. We present results from a long-term project to monitor UHJ transits. We recovered WASP-12 b’s orbital decay rate of P ̇ = − 29.8 ± 1.6 ms yr−1, in agreement with prior work. Five other systems initially had promising nonlinear transit ephemerides. However, a closer examination of two—WASP-19 b and CoRoT-2 b, both with prior tentative detections—revealed several independent errors with the literature timing data; after correction, neither planet shows signs of orbital decay. Meanwhile, a potential decreasing period for TrES-1 b, P ̇ = − 16 ± 5 ms yr−1, corresponds to a tidal quality factor Q ⋆ ′ = 160 and likely does not result from orbital decay if driven by dissipation within the host star. Nominal period increases in two systems, WASP-121 b and WASP-46 b, rest on a small handful of points. Only 1/43 planets (WASP-12 b) in our sample is experiencing detectable orbital decay. For nearly half (20/42), we can rule out P ̇ as high as observed for WASP-12 b. Thus, while many UHJs could still be experiencing rapid decay that we cannot yet detect, a sizable subpopulation of UHJs are decaying at least an order of magnitude more slowly than WASP-12 b. Our reanalysis of Kepler-1658 b with no new data finds that it remains a promising orbital decay candidate. Finally, we recommend that the scientific community take steps to avoid spurious detections through better management of the multi-decade-spanning data sets needed to search for and study planetary orbital decay.

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“…Petrucci et al (2018) investigated homogeneous TTVs for the planet using both new and previously published data, concluding that the potential for orbital decay cannot be excluded. Davoudi et al (2021) observed a positive orbital variation and attributed it to star magnetic activity. We have analyzed 86 mid-transit-time data (54 from the literature, 32 from TESS).…”

Section: Wasp-1 Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It has been the subject of discussion as an orbital decay candidate for a long period of time. Ever since the first report of orbital decay from WASP-43 b by Jiang et al (2016), all subsequent studies have effectively ruled out the existence of orbital decay by incorporating new timing data (Hoyer et al 2016;Stevenson et al 2017;Patra et al 2020;Davoudi et al 2021;Garai et al 2021;Hagey et al 2022). Our quadratic model fitting yields a rate of change of the period of 0.19 ± 0.34 ms yr −1 , which also supports the constant period scenario.…”

Section: Comparison To Thementioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term Variations in the Orbital Period of Hot Jupiters from Transit-timing Analysis Using TESS Survey Data

Wang,

Zhang,

Chen

et al. 2024

ApJS

3

0

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Many hot Jupiters may experience orbital decays, which are manifested as long-term transit-timing variations. We have analyzed 7068 transits from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) for a sample of 326 hot Jupiters. These new mid-transit-time data allow us to update ephemerides for these systems. By combining the new TESS transit-timing data with archival data, we searched for possible long-term variations in the orbital period in these hot Jupiters using a linear and a quadratic ephemeris model. We identified 26 candidates that exhibit possible long-term variations of the orbital period, including 18 candidates with decreasing orbital periods and eight candidates with increasing orbital periods. Among them, 12 candidates failed our leave-one-out cross validation test and thus should be considered to be marginal candidates. In addition to tidal interaction, alternative mechanisms such as apsidal precession, the Rømer effect, and the Applegate effect could also contribute to the variations during the observed period. The ephemerides derived in this work are useful for scheduling follow-up observations for these hot Jupiters in the future. The Python code (PdotQuest, https://github.com/AeoN400/PdotQuest) used to generate the ephemerides is made available online.

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Refined Ephemeris for Four Hot Jupiters Using Ground-Based and TESS Observations

Cited by 3 publications

References 52 publications

Evidence of Long-term Period Variations in the Exoplanet Transit Database (ETD)

Evidence of Long-term Period Variations in the Exoplanet Transit Database (ETD)

Doomed Worlds. I. No New Evidence for Orbital Decay in a Long-term Survey of 43 Ultrahot Jupiters

Long-term Variations in the Orbital Period of Hot Jupiters from Transit-timing Analysis Using TESS Survey Data

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