“…Van Boxtel and Koch (2016) next suggested that the estimated joint success probability Bpoorly reflects the strength of the findings,^apparently because their calculated p = .56 does not indicate a significant effect and is much smaller than the average power (0.93). In addition to mistakenly interpreting the estimated joint success probability as a p value, van Boxtel and Koch (2016) seem to have fallen victim to the Bconjunction fallacy,^which violates the fundamental property of probability that a joint set of outcomes must always be no more probable than any subset of those outcomes (e.g., Tversky & Kahneman, 1983).…”