Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations

Abstract

COVID-19 has resulted in a staggering death toll in the United States: over 215,000 by mid-October 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Black and Latino Americans have experienced a disproportionate burden of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase risk of exposure to COVID-19 and mortality risk for those infected. We estimate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 y for 2020, for the total US population and by race and ethnicity, using four scenarios of deaths—one in which the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred and three including COVID-19 mortality projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Our medium estimate indicates a reduction in US life expectancy at birth of 1.13 y to 77.48 y, lower than any year since 2003. We also project a 0.87-y reduction in life expectancy at age 65 y. The Black and Latino populations are estimated to experience declines in life expectancy at birth of 2.10 and 3.05 y, respectively, both of which are several times the 0.68-y reduction for Whites. These projections imply an increase of nearly 40% in the Black−White life expectancy gap, from 3.6 y to over 5 y, thereby eliminating progress made in reducing this differential since 2006. Latinos, who have consistently experienced lower mortality than Whites (a phenomenon known as the Latino or Hispanic paradox), would see their more than 3-y survival advantage reduced to less than 1 y.

Quantifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic through life expectancy losses: a population-level study of 29 countries

“…Emerging evidence from some developing countries (such as Brazil and Mexico) which have been devastated by the pandemic (Karlinsky and Kobak, 2021) suggests that life expectancy losses may be even larger in these populations. Similarly, losses in life expectancy are likely to vary substantially between subgroups within countries, with recent research from the US showing socially disadvantaged groups experiencing losses three times higher than those reported here at the national level (Andrasfay and Goldman, 2021; Arias et al, 2021). However, a lack of data currently limits direct and more dis-aggregated comparisons, but these are urgently needed to understand the full mortality impacts of the pandemic.…”

“…It refers to the average number of years a synthetic cohort of newborns would live if they were to experience the death rates observed in a given period throughout their lifespan. While the indicator does not describe a cohort’s actual life course (Goldstein and Lee, 2020) and should not be interpreted as the expected lifespan of any individual (see Supplemental text 2), it summarizes the mortality profile of a population in a given period (Andrasfay and Goldman, 2021; Aburto et al, 2020). As life expectancy is unaffected by the size and age structure of a population, it is the preferred indicator for comparisons over time within and across countries (Andrasfay and Goldman, 2021).…”

Declining Life Expectancy in the United States

“…Not surprisingly, US life expectancy will have declined even further in 2020 because of deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 and excess deaths from other causes. 5 The burden of elevated mortality will once again primarily affect those with lower socioeconomic status, exacerbating the trends of the last 4 decades. 6…”

Understanding Convergence Between Non-Hispanic Black and White COVID-19 Mortality: A County-Level Approach

“…Provisional death counts are incomplete, and likely undercount true COVID-19 mortality. Calculations in October 2020 suggest that 94% of provisional death counts by age and race were complete as of that date (Andrasfay & Goldman, 2021). According to the NVSS, less than 0.7% of all recorded COVID-19 deaths are missing racial data (Technical Notes, 2020).…”

“…The gap in life expectancy between Blacks and Whites is 3.6 years, but is projected to widen by 40% to more than 5 years due to the coronavirus pandemic (Andrasfay & Goldman, 2021). Black Americans also live a greater portion of their lives managing chronic conditions and disability due to differences in lifetime exposure to racism, stressors, and structural discrimination, all factors contributing to higher COVID-19 mortality rates among Black Americans (Lee & Hicken, 2016;Mays et al, 2007;Mitchell et al, 2021;Price-Haywood et al, 2020;Williams & Mohammed, 2009).…”