Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China: comparison between a high resolution RCM simulation and the driving GCM

Gao, Xuejie; Shi, Ying; Song, Rong; Giorgi, Filippo; Wang, Yan; Zhang, D.

doi:10.1007/s00703-008-0296-5

Cited by 230 publications

(155 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…WRF downscaling successfully eliminates this overestimation and faithfully reproduces the precipitation center in the southeast China. These are consistent with some previous studies [Gao et al, 2001[Gao et al, , 2008Zou and Zhou, 2013]. In addition, WRF downscaling generally simulates more reliable spatial distributions of total precipitation in China and four subregions with higher spatial pattern correlations and closer magnitude (Table 2).…”

Section: 1002/2015jd023275supporting

confidence: 91%

“…The increasing magnitude in northern regions is stronger than that in southern regions. This is consistent with the results derived from RegCM3 driven by the NASA/NCAR global model FvGCM that future precipitation will increase in China with the largest increases over northwest China [Gao et al, 2008]. Precipitation over some southern regions is projected to decrease.…”

Section: Projections Of Total Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 89%

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Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China

2015

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This study assesses present-day and future precipitation changes over China by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.5.1. The WRF model was driven by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with the Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component (GFDL-ESM2G) output over China at the resolution of 30 km for the present day and near future (2031)(2032)(2033)(2034)(2035)(2036)(2037)(2038)(2039)(2040)(2041)(2042)(2043)(2044)(2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2050) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. The results demonstrate that with improved resolution and better representation of finer-scale physical process, dynamical downscaling adds value to the regional precipitation simulation. WRF downscaling generally simulates more reliable spatial distributions of total precipitation and extreme precipitation in China with higher spatial pattern correlations and closer magnitude. It is able to successfully eliminate the artificial precipitation maximum area simulated by GFDL-ESM2G over the west of the Sichuan Basin, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau in both summer and winter. Besides, the regional annual cycle and frequencies of precipitation intensity are also well depicted by WRF. In the future projections, under the RCP4.5 scenario, both models project that summer precipitation over most parts of China will increase, especially in western and northern China, and that precipitation over some southern regions is projected to decrease. The projected increase of future extreme precipitation makes great contributions to the total precipitation increase. In southern regions, the projected larger extreme precipitation amounts accompanied with fewer extreme precipitation frequencies suggest that future daily extreme precipitation intensity is likely to increase in these regions.

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Section: 1002/2015jd023275supporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Projections Of Total Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 89%

Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China

2015

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“…A coarse-resolution GCM will usually produce considerable discrepancies against observations when simulating the climate in China, such as significantly lower air temperature but more precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau, an artificial precipitation center over the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, and poor reproduction of regional details of climatic variables (Gao et al, 2008. With its advantages of more realistic topographic forcings and comprehensive physical processes, RCM dynamical downscaling is a method that offers great improvements to simulation results, such as a significant decrease in bias, better reproduction of regional details, and removal of the aforementioned artificial precipitation center (Gao et al, 2008;Wang and Yu, 2013b;Yu et al, 2015). The present study found that the simulation of climate in China can also be significantly improved by the direct use of a VFRGCM, i.e., a GCM that has a resolution almost equal to that of RCM dynamical downscaling.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is mainly due to its more realistic topographic forcings, comprehensive physical processes, and the related improvement in simulation results relative to the driving GCM (Ju et al, 2007;Yu et al, 2010Yu et al, , 2015Gao et al, 2012;Endris et al, 2013;Martynov et al, 2013). The method appears to be more effective for regions with complex topography, such as China, characterized by its wide variety of highly different landscapes, with the Tibetan Plateau and various mountain chains in the west and the north and lower lands in the east (Gao et al, 2008). Ju et al (2007) simulated the East Asian climate at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using RegCM2 (Giorgi et al, 1993a(Giorgi et al, , 1993b nested within an atmospheric GCM, and proved that the high-resolution RegCM2 can capture additional regional details of the LGM climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ju et al (2007) simulated the East Asian climate at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using RegCM2 (Giorgi et al, 1993a(Giorgi et al, , 1993b nested within an atmospheric GCM, and proved that the high-resolution RegCM2 can capture additional regional details of the LGM climate. When RegCM3 (Pal et al, 2007) was nested within the global model FvGCM [finite volume general circulation model (Lin and Rood, 1996;Kiehl et al, 1996)], Gao et al (2008) found that it showed a better performance in both the spatial pattern and amount of precipitation over East Asia than FvGCM alone, with the most marked improvement being the removal of an artificial precipitation center over the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. Recently, the WRF model (Skamarock et al, 2008) model was employed to simulate changes in climate extremes over China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparison of a very-fine-resolution GCM with RCM dynamical downscaling in simulating climate in China

Guo

Wang

2016

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

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Regional climate simulation can generally be improved by using an RCM nested within a coarser-resolution GCM. However, whether or not it can also be improved by the direct use of a state-of-the-art GCM with very fine resolution, close to that of an RCM, and, if so, which is the better approach, are open questions. These questions are important for understanding and using these two kinds of simulation approaches, but have not yet been investigated. Accordingly, the present reported work compared simulation results over China from a very-fine-resolution GCM (VFRGCM) and from RCM dynamical downscaling. The results showed that: (1) The VFRGCM reproduces the climatologies and trends of both air temperature and precipitation, as well as inter-monthly variations of air temperature in terms of spatial pattern and amount, closer to observations than the coarse-resolution version of the GCM. This is not the case, however, for the inter-monthly variations of precipitation. (2) The VFRGCM captures the climatology, trend, and inter-monthly variation of air temperature, as well as the trend in precipitation, more reasonably than the RCM dynamical downscaling method. (3) The RCM dynamical downscaling method performs better than the VFRGCM in terms of the climatology and inter-monthly variation of precipitation. Overall, the results suggest that VFRGCMs possess great potential with regard to their application in climate simulation in the future, and the RCM dynamical downscaling method is still dominant in terms of regional precipitation simulation.

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Assessment of the RegCM4 over East Asia and future precipitation change adapted to the RCP scenarios

Park

Lee

et al. 2014

J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.

101

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In this study, we investigated spatial and temporal changes in precipitation over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia domain, for present (1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) and future (2031-2050) periods using the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). Future meteorology produced by the Hadley Center Global Environmental Model version 2 coupled with the Atmosphere-Ocean (HadGEM2-AO) following global climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5) was used as meteorological boundary conditions for the RegCM4. Six subregions (South Korea, North China, South China, Japan, Mongolia, and India) in the CORDEX East Asia domain were considered for analysis. The RegCM4 simulated spatial distributions of precipitation over East Asia with a correlation coefficient of 0.7 against Climate Research Unit data. The simulation skills of its temporal variability varied based on geographical regions and seasons, showing relatively poorer performance (underestimation in rainfall amount) in summer than in winter, in general. The future climate simulations by the RegCM4 presented that the East Asian continental regions will be warmer and more humid, leading to increased precipitation amounts, especially in the summer. The summer precipitation amount was projected to increase by about 5%, on average, over the East Asian domain, 5À15% in most subregions, and even higher (44% and 24%) in the South Korean region for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. It was also expected that heavy rainfall (> 50 mm/d) events may occur more frequently in the future possibly owing to meteorological changes that are favorable to convective heavy precipitation.

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Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China: comparison between a high resolution RCM simulation and the driving GCM

Cited by 230 publications

References 39 publications

Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China

Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China

Comparison of a very-fine-resolution GCM with RCM dynamical downscaling in simulating climate in China

Assessment of the RegCM4 over East Asia and future precipitation change adapted to the RCP scenarios

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