Reducing uncertainty in ecosystem service modelling through weighted ensembles

Hooftman, Danny A. P.; Bullock, James M.; Jones, Laurence; Eigenbrod, Felix; Barredo, José I.; Forrest, Matthew; Kindermann, Georg; Thomas, Amy; Willcock, Simon

doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2021.101398

Cited by 16 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 58 publications

(133 reference statements)

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“…Where uncertainty existed about what distance was most appropriate to model the delivery of NCP (for example, how far to model people downstream or how far people might travel to natural assets), we performed further sensitivity analysis and confirmed that the estimated land area of critical natural assets is robust to the distance chosen (impacting results by <5%; Supplementary Table 6). As availability of global models for many of these NCP increases, future work should move towards ensemble modelling approaches, which have been shown to increase accuracy and reduce uncertainty compared with individual model outputs 42,43 . Data and modelling gaps prevented a broader exploration of issues relevant to the ecological supply side of NCP.…”

Section: Gaps and Next Stepsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the planet’s critical natural assets

Chaplin‐Kramer

Neugarten

Sharp³

et al. 2022

Nat Ecol Evol

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Sustaining the organisms, ecosystems and processes that underpin human wellbeing is necessary to achieve sustainable development. Here we define critical natural assets as the natural and semi-natural ecosystems that provide 90% of the total current magnitude of 14 types of nature’s contributions to people (NCP), and we map the global locations of these critical natural assets at 2 km resolution. Critical natural assets for maintaining local-scale NCP (12 of the 14 NCP) account for 30% of total global land area and 24% of national territorial waters, while 44% of land area is required to also maintain two global-scale NCP (carbon storage and moisture recycling). These areas overlap substantially with cultural diversity (areas containing 96% of global languages) and biodiversity (covering area requirements for 73% of birds and 66% of mammals). At least 87% of the world’s population live in the areas benefitting from critical natural assets for local-scale NCP, while only 16% live on the lands containing these assets. Many of the NCP mapped here are left out of international agreements focused on conserving species or mitigating climate change, yet this analysis shows that explicitly prioritizing critical natural assets and the NCP they provide could simultaneously advance development, climate and conservation goals.

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Section: Gaps and Next Stepsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the planet’s critical natural assets

Chaplin‐Kramer

Neugarten

Sharp³

et al. 2022

Nat Ecol Evol

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“…Such resources can be out of reach for many researchers and practitioners. Furthermore, if practitioners must choose between running multiple models for a single service versus modeling additional services, then the former may be of low priority; thus, the widespread use of ES ensembles may be an unrealistic goal (13,14,20). We refer to the lack of these resources as the "capacity gap."…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We refer to the lack of these resources as the "capacity gap." One potential solution to the capacity gap is that those who have the resources to create ES ensembles make the resulting data, as well as estimates of uncertainty, freely available [e.g., (13,20)].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model ensembles of ecosystem services fill global certainty and capacity gaps

et al. 2023

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Sustaining ecosystem services (ES) critical to human well-being is hindered by many practitioners lacking access to ES models (“the capacity gap”) or knowledge of the accuracy of available models (“the certainty gap”), especially in the world’s poorer regions. We developed ensembles of multiple models at an unprecedented global scale for five ES of high policy relevance. Ensembles were 2 to 14% more accurate than individual models. Ensemble accuracy was not correlated with proxies for research capacity, indicating that accuracy is distributed equitably across the globe and that countries less able to research ES suffer no accuracy penalty. By making these ES ensembles and associated accuracy estimates freely available, we provide globally consistent ES information that can support policy and decision-making in regions with low data availability or low capacity for implementing complex ES models. Thus, we hope to reduce the capacity and certainty gaps impeding local- to global-scale movement toward ES sustainability.

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confidence: 99%

“…As availability of global models for many of these NCP increases, future work should move toward ensemble modeling approaches, which have been shown to increase accuracy and reduce uncertainty compared to individual model outputs. 38,39 Data and modeling gaps prevented a broader exploration of issues relevant to the ecological supply of NCP. Although results presented here suggest that nationally prioritized areas for local NCP can deliver on global priorities in many regions, they also highlight a need for integrated modeling to represent interactions between different NCP.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the planet’s critical natural assets

Chaplin‐Kramer

Neugarten

Sharp

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Sustaining the organisms, ecosystems, and processes that underpin human well-being is necessary to achieve sustainable development. Here we analyze 12 of nature’s contributions to people (NCP) for food, water, and climate security. Using spatial optimization, we identify critical natural assets, the most important ecosystems for providing NCP, comprising 39% of total global land area and 24% of national territorial waters. Many of these NCP are overlooked by international agreements focused on conserving species or mitigating climate change, yet our analysis shows that explicitly prioritizing critical natural assets jointly advances development, climate, and conservation goals. Developing policy and investment strategies that protect critical natural assets is essential for securing Earth’s life support systems.One Sentence SummaryGlobal optimization shows 39% of land and 24% of ocean area contains 90% of current levels of provision for 12 of nature’s contributions to people.

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Reducing uncertainty in ecosystem service modelling through weighted ensembles

Cited by 16 publications

References 58 publications

Mapping the planet’s critical natural assets

Mapping the planet’s critical natural assets

Model ensembles of ecosystem services fill global certainty and capacity gaps

Mapping the planet’s critical natural assets

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