Reducing Fossil Fuel Dependence and Exploring Just Energy Transition Pathways in Indonesia Using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System)

Abstract

Indonesia’s commitment to the Paris Agreement and its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is not adequately reflected in the significant CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel-intensive energy sectors, despite the enormous potential of renewable energy sources in the country. The ongoing coal regime has led to electricity oversupply and air pollution problems. Despite the huge challenges for Indonesia, a just energy transition away from fossil fuel is crucial. This study aims to explore the ideal energy mix and key emission reduction pathway in Indonesia in achieving a just energy transition using the least-cost optimisation energy modelling tool OSeMOSYS. Six scenarios are modelled over the period 2015–2050 including coal phase-out, NDC, the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), and carbon tax implementation. The results highlight that solar power, geothermal power, and hydropower are the alternatives for coal decommissioning. Despite the large-scale investment in renewable energy under the NDC and JETP scenarios, emissions could be reduced by 55% and 52%, respectively, by 2050. Moreover, Indonesia’s current carbon tax rate will not lead to a significant emission reduction. Three recommended policies include (1) accelerating CFPP retirement; (2) imposing an aggressive carbon tax rate; (3) prioritising investment in solar technologies.

Long-Term Energy System Modelling for a Clean Energy Transition in Egypt’s Energy Sector

“…This research uses OSeMOSYS to conclude that large-scale renewable energy projects and the retirement of coal power stations are critical pathways to achieving a clean energy transition for Indonesia. OSeMOSYS was also used to explore a just energy transition in Indonesia whilst reducing the country's dependence on fossil fuels [19]. The paper also recommends that coal-fired power plants be retired more quickly and to impose a more aggressive carbon tax rate and prioritise investment into solar technologies to ensure a just transition.…”

“…Following this, the ensuing recession resulted in Egypt's transition from an energy exporter in 2009 to an energy importer by 2014 [4]. To tackle this, the government implemented ambitious reforms in 2016, designed to restore political and macroeconomic stability, which included raising taxes, reducing 2 of 19 fossil fuel energy subsidies, and introducing feed-in tariffs to promote renewable energy production [3,6]. These efforts have resulted in a significant increase in investment, boosting electricity production [6].…”

The role of inter-island transmission in full decarbonisation scenarios for Indonesia’s power sector

“…Earlier modelled power systems were often based on official targets and policies, like the Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement [6][7][8][9] and still contained high shares of fossil-fuel-based capacity. Only recently, the focus shifted to the modelling of 100% renewable power systems with [10][11][12][13] and without [14] nuclear power. Except in Reyseliani and Purwanto's [11] scenario with nuclear power, solar photovoltaics (PV) is the dominant generation technology in Indonesia's fully decarbonised power system with generation shares between 78% [10] and 99% [14] in 2050.…”

“…Only recently, the focus shifted to the modelling of 100% renewable power systems with [10][11][12][13] and without [14] nuclear power. Except in Reyseliani and Purwanto's [11] scenario with nuclear power, solar photovoltaics (PV) is the dominant generation technology in Indonesia's fully decarbonised power system with generation shares between 78% [10] and 99% [14] in 2050.…”

“…However, there are two main limitations in contemporary literature. First, most studies [6,8,[10][11][12][15][16][17][18][19] assume a national copperplate approach, meaning that all demand and supply occur in a single node without interconnections within and between islands, thereby disregarding the complexity of Indonesia's current grid topology of several, disconnected systems. This approach also does not reflect the regional mismatch between electricity demand and renewable energy resources, as is the case for Indonesia's economic centre Java where available land for onshore renewables is limited [20].…”