Reduced range size and Important Bird and Biodiversity Area coverage for the Harpy Eagle (Harpia harpyja) predicted from multiple climate change scenarios

Abstract

Climate change is expected to have a profound impact on species distributions, contracting suitable climate space. Biodiversity areas are important to mitigate these negative effects but are static by design and thus do not account for future projections of species distributions. The Harpy Eagle Harpia harpyja has a broad range across lowland Neotropical forests and thus its distribution could be negatively affected by climate change when combined with current rates of habitat loss. To test this hypothesis, we use spatial point process models fitted with climatic, topographical and landcover covariates to identify the current distribution. We then project to 24 future climate scenarios, using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two emission scenarios between the years 2021 and 2100 averaged over four, 20-year periods. Our current model identified a core range across Amazonia and the Guiana Shield, with evergreen forest (71%), mean diurnal temperature range (13%) and elevation (6%) the most important predictors. Reclassifying the current model to a binary prediction estimated a range size of ~7.6 million km 2 , with the Important Bird and Biodiversity Area (IBA) network covering 18% of habitat (~1.4 million km 2 ) within this range. By 2090, range size was predicted to decrease on average by 14.4% under a higher emissions scenario, and 7.3% under a lower emissions scenario. The IBA network would cover 14% less area under a higher emissions scenario, and 3.3% less distribution area under a lower emissions scenario by 2090. Southern Amazonia is predicted to have the greatest reduction in range size and subsequently highest loss of Harpy Eagle habitat within the IBA network. Our work demonstrates that the combination of climate change and subsequent habitat loss may result in substantial losses in distribution for this raptor across the southern edge of its range.

Prey resources are equally important as climatic conditions for predicting the distribution of a broad‐ranged apex predator

“…Harpy eagles are distributed across lowland tropical forest (Miranda et al, 2019;Sutton et al, 2022aSutton et al, , 2022bVargas González & Vargas, 2011), and in seasonal forest enclaves (Silva et al, 2013). A recent review summarizing harpy eagle diet across its range established a trend towards a semispecialized diet (Miranda, 2015), mainly comprised of arboreal mammals, including sloths, primates and tree porcupines.…”

“…However, whether the distribution of food resources can successfully predict the presence of a main consumer across continental extents (2000–10,000 km) has not been tested specifically for a terrestrial apex predator. The harpy eagle ( Harpia harpyja ) is a large Neotropical raptor with a continental range across Central and South America from southern Mexico to northern Argentina (Sutton et al, 2021, 2022a, 2022b; Vargas Gonzalez et al, 2006). Harpy eagles are distributed across lowland tropical forest (Miranda et al, 2019; Sutton et al, 2022a, 2022b; Vargas González & Vargas, 2011), and in seasonal forest enclaves (Silva et al, 2013).…”

Prey resources are more important than climatic conditions for predicting the distribution of a broad-ranged apex predator

“…However, whether the distribution of food resources can successfully predict the presence of a main consumer across continental extents (2000 -10,000 km) has not been tested specifically for a terrestrial apex predator. The harpy eagle (Harpia harpyja) is a large Neotropical raptor with a continental range across Central and South America from southern Mexico to northern Argentina (Vargas González et al 2006;Sutton et al 2022a).…”

“…Harpy eagles are distributed across lowland tropical forest (Vargas González & Vargas 2011;Miranda et al 2019;Sutton et al 2021Sutton et al , 2022a, and in seasonal forest enclaves (Silva et al 2013). A recent review summarizing harpy eagle diet across its range established a trend towards a semi-specialized diet (Miranda 2015), mainly comprised of arboreal mammals, including sloths, primates, and tree porcupines.…”

“…The harpy eagle ( Harpia harpyja ) is a large Neotropical raptor with a continental range across Central and South America from southern Mexico to northern Argentina (Vargas González et al . 2006; Sutton et al . 2022a).…”