2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001900
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Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

Abstract: Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains.Our best tools to capture state-of-the-art knowledge in an internally self-consistent modeling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced… Show more

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Cited by 40 publications
(33 citation statements)
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References 71 publications
(106 reference statements)
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“…Opposing errors in the emulation of GHG and aerosol forcings give a misleading impression of emulator performance. Many climate model emulators do not reliably emulate AOGCM projections for high emissions scenarios (Z. Nicholls et al., 2021); our results suggest that strong mitigation scenarios may not be reliably emulated.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 65%
“…Opposing errors in the emulation of GHG and aerosol forcings give a misleading impression of emulator performance. Many climate model emulators do not reliably emulate AOGCM projections for high emissions scenarios (Z. Nicholls et al., 2021); our results suggest that strong mitigation scenarios may not be reliably emulated.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 65%
“…We also explore the difference in results between MAGICC6 and FaIR (the second simple climate model used in the SR1.5 assessment) in Supplementary Information Section 5 , and our results agree with the SR1.5 assessed differences in climatic outcomes between the models. With updated model versions, and calibrations that will be used in the upcoming WGIII contribution to the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report, the simple climate models are likely to show a higher degree of agreement on the magnitude of warming 30 .…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…To average out natural variability and approximate the anthropogenic warming only, we deploy a centered 11-yr centered running mean assuming a constant trajectory after 2100. We apply this running mean to the exceedance probabilities and median temperature outcomes for the MAGICC7 simple climate model 35,36 , as reported in the scenario database. Based on these time-averaged outcomes, we reclassify the AR6 WGIII scenarios according to the category criteria set out in the report 17 .…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%