Recycling policy and statistical model of end-of-life vehicles in China

Abstract

In China, the number of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) has reached an era of exponential growth because of continuous vehicle sales. The Chinese government has guided trends in the ELV recycling industry by implementing various recycling policies and expects most ELVs to be legally treated by licensed companies. The effects of subsidy policies are remarkable, and it was found that the effective adjustment of the subsidy is beneficial in increasing the recovery rate of ELVs without additional financial burden. Just as objects have their own end-of-life laws, different vehicle types have different life distribution curves and they are slightly influenced by government policies, especially subsidy policies. The aim of the study is to establish the logistics distribution functions for the passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles on the basis of the service years of 220,000 ELVs from 2012 to 2016 in Shanghai, and use a statistical model to predict and analyze the future trend of the number of the ELVs in China. Forecasts show that the number of ELVs in China will surpass 10 million in 2023.

A Systematic Literature Review of Reverse Logistics of End-of-Life Vehicles: Bibliometric Analysis and Research Trend

“…Thus, a variety of prediction theory research emerges in recent years. Some researchers use the statistical model [76] and the non-linear Gompertz model [77] to analyze the non-linear characteristics in the prediction process. Besides, due to the limitation of many uncertain factors, the grey model (GM) applies to predict the quantity of ELVs [78,79].…”

Forecasting the Number of End-of-Life Vehicles: State of the Art Report

“…In the following sections, we will discuss each method briefly and thoroughly analyze the relevant literature. (Li et al, 2020) ELVs √ 2020-2030 (Xu et al, 2019) ELVs √ 2015-2040 (Yu et al, 2019) ELVs √ 2018-2025 (Wang et al, 2019) ELHVs √ Until 2030 (Lin et al, 2018) ELVs √ 1960-2050 (Xin et al, 2018) ELVs √ 2016-2020 (Hao et al, 2018) ELVs √ 2005-2016 (Ene and Öztürk, 2017) ELVs √ 2016-2020 (Ochotnicky et al, 2017) ELVs √ Until 2020 (Demirel et al, 2016) ELVs √ 2012-2022 (Sokić et al, 2016) ELVs √ 2015-2025 (Li and Wang, 2015) ELVs √ 2015-2024 (Yano et al, 2015) ELHEVs √ 2010-2030 (Tian et al, 2013) ELVs √ 1995-2012 (Hu and Kurasaka, 2013) ELVs √ 2015,2017,2020 (Yano et al, 2013) ELVs √ 2011-2020 (Phornprapha et al, 2010) ELMs √ 2011-2040 (Andersen et al, 2007) ELVs √ 2005-2030 ( Kilde and Larsen, 2001) ELVs √ Until 2015 *GM: Grey Model, RM: Regression Model, PBM: Population Balance Model, TS: Time Series Model, SM: Statistical Model, IM: Intelligent Method, ELHVs: End-of-life Hybrid Vehicles, ELHEVs: End-of-life Hybrid Electric Vehicles, ELMs: End-of-life Motorcycles.…”

“…More particular, effective ELVs prediction guides the formation of policy and legislation for the government (Azmi and Tokai, 2017). For automotive industries, accurate predictions help automotive firms in designing development strategies, profit projections, and market evaluations (Yu et al, 2019). More specifically, effective ELVs prediction is essential for all decision levels of the RSC for industrial engineers, including strategic reverse logistics network design, tactical disposal management and capacity planning decisions, and operational production planning decisions (Toktay et al, 2004), assisting organizations in connecting their raw materials, remanufacturing operations, manufacturing capabilities, systems and clients.…”

Investigating the effect of government subsidies on end-of-life vehicle recycling

“…It is indispensable for Chinese ELV recycling enterprises to develop low-cost and effective recycling techniques (Chen et al, 2019). For legal recyclers, the potential of the ELV market is attractive (Yu et al, 2019), but with poor recycling technology the legal recyclers have to increase labour and facility costs of recycling to meet environmental standards and the standards of recycling auto parts (Tseng et al, 2020). Moreover, ELV processing cost usually exceeds the ELV profits (Chen, 2005).…”

“…Further, several researchers have studied the policies of ELVs. Yu et al (2019) highlighted that the subsidy policy significantly and positively affects Shanghai’s ELV recycling. Xia et al (2017) have studied the different government policies with Game theory to help the legal recyclers in the competition with illegal ones.…”