Recurrent cholera epidemics in Africa: which way forward? A literature review

Ajayi, Abraham; Smith, Stella I.

doi:10.1007/s15010-018-1186-5

Cited by 25 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 79 publications

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“…Although we assumed zero suspected cases for weeks without case reports, many regions only report cases during officially declared outbreaks, leaving the possibility that more sporadic cases were not captured in the surveillance systems ( Ajayi and Smith, 2019 ;Balakrish Nair and Takeda, 2014 ;Deen et al, 2020 ;Ganesan et al, 2020 ). Hence, setting the average of the reported weekly incidence as the fixed outbreak threshold may not reflect the true burden of cholera for a given region.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cholera outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa during 2010-2019: a descriptive analysis

Zheng

Luquero

Ciglenečki

et al. 2022

International Journal of Infectious Diseases

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“…Although we assumed zero suspected cases for weeks without case reports, many regions only report cases during officially declared outbreaks, leaving the possibility that more sporadic cases were not captured in the surveillance systems ( Ajayi and Smith, 2019 ;Balakrish Nair and Takeda, 2014 ;Deen et al, 2020 ;Ganesan et al, 2020 ). Hence, setting the average of the reported weekly incidence as the fixed outbreak threshold may not reflect the true burden of cholera for a given region.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cholera outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa during 2010-2019: a descriptive analysis

Zheng

Luquero

Ciglenečki

et al. 2022

International Journal of Infectious Diseases

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…Although we assumed zero suspected cases for weeks without case reports, many regions only report cases during officially declared outbreaks, leaving the possibility that more sporadic cases were not captured in the surveillance systems. [30][31][32][33] Hence, setting the average of the reported weekly incidence as the fixed outbreak threshold may not reflect the true burden of cholera for a given region. To assess the sensitivity of the threshold and assumption, we repeated the analysis using a different definition for the outbreak threshold, which was defined as the average number of reported suspected cases per week during the first three epidemic weeks with an increasing number of reported cases (see supplements).…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cholera outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa during 2010-2019: A Descriptive Analysis

Zheng

Luquero

Ciglenečki

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Background: Cholera remains a public health threat, but is inequitably distributed, especially affecting areas without universal access to safe water and sanitation, including much of sub-Saharan Africa. Lack of standardized reporting and inconsistent outbreak definitions limit our understanding of cholera outbreak epidemiology. Methods: We curated a database of cholera incidence and mortality from sub-Saharan Africa from 2010 to 2020 and developed methods to reconstruct epidemic curves. We then described the distribution of key outbreak metrics, including outbreak size and duration. Results: We identified 999 suspected cholera outbreaks in 744 unique regions across 25 sub-Saharan Africa countries, and outbreak periods accounted for 1.8 billion person-months (2% of the total during this period) from January 2010 through January 2020. Among the 692 outbreaks reported from second-level administrative units (e.g., districts), the median attack rate was 0.8 per 1,000 people (IQR, 0.3-2.4 per 1,000), the median epidemic duration was 13 weeks (IQR, 8-19), and the median early outbreak reproductive number was 1.8 (range, 1.1-3.5). Rural outbreaks had more than twice the case fatality risk than urban ones (median of 1.8% versus 0.8%). Larger attack rates were associated with longer times to outbreak peak, longer epidemic durations, and lower case fatality risks. Conclusions: Despite reporting gaps and the limitations of analyzing outbreaks by administrative units, this work provides a baseline from which to monitor progress towards cholera control and essential statistics to inform outbreak management and emergency response in sub-Saharan Africa.

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“…There is also a need for a robust national, regional, and global surveillance system that would generate epidemiologic data regarding existing and emerging areas of risk for Vibrio infections [65,66]. To date, only the US gathers epidemiological data systematically since 1988 through the Cholera and Other Vibrio Information Service (COVIS) CDC program [67].…”

Section: Prevention Of Cholera-future Directionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Climate Change on Cholera: A Review on the Global Status and Future Challenges

et al. 2020

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Water ecosystems can be rather sensitive to evolving or sudden changes in weather parameters. These changes can result in alterations in the natural habitat of pathogens, vectors, and human hosts, as well as in the transmission dynamics and geographic distribution of infectious agents. However, the interaction between climate change and infectious disease is rather complicated and not deeply understood. In this narrative review, we discuss climate-driven changes in the epidemiology of Vibrio species-associated diseases with an emphasis on cholera. Changes in environmental parameters do shape the epidemiology of Vibrio cholerae. Outbreaks of cholera cause significant disease burden, especially in developing countries. Improved sanitation systems, access to clean water, educational strategies, and vaccination campaigns can help control vibriosis. In addition, real-time assessment of climatic parameters with remote-sensing technologies in combination with robust surveillance systems could help detect environmental changes in high-risk areas and result in early public health interventions that can mitigate potential outbreaks.

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Recurrent cholera epidemics in Africa: which way forward? A literature review

Abstract: Paying attention and tackling these identified factors that are dependent and independent can help put an end to this running battle.

Cited by 25 publications

References 79 publications

Cholera outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa during 2010-2019: a descriptive analysis

Cholera outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa during 2010-2019: a descriptive analysis

Cholera outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa during 2010-2019: A Descriptive Analysis

The Impact of Climate Change on Cholera: A Review on the Global Status and Future Challenges

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