Recurrence of earthquakes in the area of the Toktogul HPP cascade

Abstract

A brief statistical analysis of the current seismicity of the Toktogul region of the Kyrgyz Republic is done. The analysis concerns the region where the Toktogul HPP cascade on the Naryn River is located, and covers the period from 1973 to 2021 years. The space-time distributions of earthquakes, accumulation characteristics, probability and recurrence of seismic events of various magnitudes are considered. According to the analysis results, the maximum magnitude of seismic events in the Toktogul region can be ∼ 7.4, and the recurrence period of earthquakes with a magnitude of M ≥ 7 and above T ≥ 10 years is equal.