Record-breaking and unprecedented compound hot and dry summers in Europe under different emission scenarios

Abstract

After analysing observed summer compound hot and dry (CHD) events over Europe from 1950 to 2022, we employ a large ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations to investigate CHD events under different emission scenarios.
By the end of the century, even under a low-emission scenario, model results show a likely increase in the frequency and extension of CHD events over most (60%) of Europe. In particular, the fraction of land projected to be hit once every two years nearly doubles (at least 15%, likely range 6-21) compared to the historical period (8%, 6.5-10), and at least 5,3% (1-7) of land will be hit every year. 
Under a high-emission scenario, 50% of the Iberian Peninsula is projected to be hit at least twice every three years (20.3 times in 30 years, likely range 17.2-24.2), compared to 1 in ten years in the historical period, whereas 50% of the British Islands, France, and the Mediterranean will be hit more than once every two years. Moreover, 10% of European land will be hit nearly once every 7 years (4.2 times, 3.2-5.6) by CHD events whose intensity equalled or even surpassed the maximum recorded during 1950-2022, and 20% of the Iberian Peninsula once every 5 years. The increase in record-breaking or unprecedented CHD events is mostly related to the increase in record-breaking heatwaves, which is likely over most regions even for the low-emission scenario. In contrast, the increase in record-breaking drought events is limited to southern Europe under the medium- and high-emission scenarios.

Assessment of Changes in Agroclimatic Resources of the Republic of Bashkortostan (Russia) under the Context of Global Warming

“…Similar conclusions for the European region are reflected in [2][3][4]. Based on the results of studies of forecast estimates [5], it was found that even in a low-emission scenario, a likely increase in the frequency and spread of heat and drought events in most of Europe is expected (60%). There are similar works for African countries [6][7][8][9] and Asia [10][11][12].…”

Divergent future change in South Atlantic Ocean Dipole impacts on regional rainfall in CMIP6 models

“…Our findings underscore the uncertainties inherent in model projections of the SAOD-rainfall relationship in the context of climate change. Because of the strong impacts of the SAOD, any shifts in this relationship with regional rainfall could trigger changes with far-reaching socioeconomic consequences (Almazroui 2020, Dosio et al 2023. Further studies focusing on the realistic models identified in this study are needed to investigate such future impacts to guide societal adaptation planning.…”