Reconstruction of space weather physical parameters on 400-year scale

Nagovitsyn, Yu. A.; Miletsky, E. V.; Иванов, В. П.; Guseva, S. A.

doi:10.1134/s0010952508040011

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Figure 5 shows a comparison made by Mun ˜oz-Jaramillo et al (2015) of fits to the instantaneous total group sunspot number area from RGO for four different functions: lognormal, power law, exponential, and Weibull. For the five data sets Mun ˜oz-Jaramillo et al considered (RGO, KMAS, SOON, Pulkovo Observatory (Nagovitsyn et al 2008), and the Heliospheric and Magnetic Imager (HMI; Scherrer et al 2012) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO; Pesnell et al 2012), the best fit was provided by the Weibull function distribution in each case although it only passed the Kolomogorov-Smirnov test for the HMI data set.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme solar events

Cliver

Schrijver

Shibata

et al. 2022

Living Rev Sol Phys

100

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We trace the evolution of research on extreme solar and solar-terrestrial events from the 1859 Carrington event to the rapid development of the last twenty years. Our focus is on the largest observed/inferred/theoretical cases of sunspot groups, flares on the Sun and Sun-like stars, coronal mass ejections, solar proton events, and geomagnetic storms. The reviewed studies are based on modern observations, historical or long-term data including the auroral and cosmogenic radionuclide record, and Kepler observations of Sun-like stars. We compile a table of 100- and 1000-year events based on occurrence frequency distributions for the space weather phenomena listed above. Questions considered include the Sun-like nature of superflare stars and the existence of impactful but unpredictable solar "black swans" and extreme "dragon king" solar phenomena that can involve different physics from that operating in events which are merely large.

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Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme solar events

Cliver

Schrijver

Shibata

et al. 2022

Living Rev Sol Phys

100

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“…The result is a set of 19038 groups. PCSA data is available at http://www.gao.spb.ru/database/csa/, and is described in detail by Nagovitsyn et al (2008). Data are shown in Figure 1(b).…”

Section: Sunspot Group Databasesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Small-Scale and Global Dynamos and the Area and Flux Distributions of Active Regions, Sunspot Groups, and Sunspots: A Multi-Database Study

Muñoz-Jaramillo

Senkpeil

Windmueller

et al. 2015

ApJ

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In this work we take advantage of eleven different sunspot group, sunspot, and active region databases to characterize the area and flux distributions of photospheric magnetic structures. We find that, when taken separately, different databases are better fitted by different distributions (as has been reported previously in the literature). However, we find that all our databases can be reconciled by the simple application of a proportionality constant, and that, in reality, different databases are sampling different parts of a composite distribution. This composite distribution is made up by linear combination of Weibull and log-normal distributions -where a pure Weibull (log-normal) characterizes the distribution of structures with fluxes below (above) 10 21 Mx (10 22 Mx). We propose that this is evidence of two separate mechanisms giving rise to visible structures on the photosphere: one directly connected to the global component of the dynamo (and the generation of bipolar active regions), and the other with the small-scale component of the dynamo (and the fragmentation of magnetic structures due to their interaction with turbulent convection). Additionally, we demonstrate that the Weibull distribution shows the expected linear behaviour of a power-law distribution (when extended into smaller fluxes), making our results compatible with the results of Parnell et al. (2009).

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“…An approach involving "time scales," which are dis tinguished in accordance with our possibilities for using observational material for reconstructions, was proposed in (Nagovitsyn et al, 2004(Nagovitsyn et al, , 2008. We distinguish the fol lowing successive scales: (a) 100-150 years, direct regu lar solar activity observations; (b) 400 years, irregular direct activity observations; (c) 1000-2000 years, the selection of indirect data on solar activity (auroras and sunspots observed by naked eye and radionuclides in nat ural archives); (d) 10000 years, indirect data (called "proxies" in English literature) on solar activity: data on the radiocarbon and beryllium 10 concentration in dated samples (tree rings, polar ice); (e) more than 10000 years, hypothetical data (thickness of varve and clay laminas), the origin of which is related to solar activity according to some researchers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variations in the cyclic characteristics of solar magnetic activity on long time scales

Nagovitsyn

2014

Geomagn. Aeron.

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Prolonged variations in the duration of the Schwabe-Wolf (~11 years) and Suess (~200 years) cycles have been analyzed using different experimental data. It was shown that the duration of the Schwabe-Wolf cycle on a 2000 year time scale varied monotonically (on average, increasing) and cyclically (with a period of several hundred years); periods of 10.4, 11.0, and 11.4 years predominate on the occurrence fre quency histogram. The Suess cycle duration was 200-290 years during the Holocene and tended to increase in the past. This was accompanied by cyclic variations with a period of 2300-2500 years corresponding to the Hallstatt cycle. Arguments for the assumption that the Suess cycle duration decreased by a factor of more than 1.5 over the past half billion years are presented. This may indicate that the solar rotation characteristics and convection zone parameters varied on long time scales during the Sun's evolution on the main sequence.

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Reconstruction of space weather physical parameters on 400-year scale

Cited by 9 publications

References 28 publications

Extreme solar events

Extreme solar events

Small-Scale and Global Dynamos and the Area and Flux Distributions of Active Regions, Sunspot Groups, and Sunspots: A Multi-Database Study

Variations in the cyclic characteristics of solar magnetic activity on long time scales

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