Reconstruction of sea level pressure fields over the Eastern North Atlantic and Europe back to 1500

Abstract

Spatially and temporally high-resolution estimates of past natural climate variability are important to assess recent significant climate trends. The mid-latitude atmospheric circulation is the dominant factor for regional changes in temperature, rainfall, and other climatic variables. Here we present reconstructions of gridded monthly sea level pressure (SLP) fields back to 1659 and seasonal reconstructions from 1500-1658 for the eastern North Atlantic-European region (30°W to 40°E; 30°N to 70°N). These were developed using principal component regression analysis based on the combination of early instrumental station series (pressure, temperature and precipitation) and documentary proxy data from Eurasian sites. The relationships were derived over the 1901-1960 calibration period and verified over 1961-1990. Under the assumption of stationarity in the statistical relationships, a transfer function derived over the 1901-1990 period was used to reconstruct the 500-year largescale SLP fields. Systematic quality testing indicated reliable winter reconstructions throughout the entire period. Lower skill was obtained for the other seasons, although meaningful monthly reconstructions were available from around 1700 onwards, when station pressure series became available. The quality and the reconstructed SLP fields for two exceptionally cold years (1573, 1740) are discussed and climatologically interpreted. An EOF analysis of the 1500-1999 winter SLP revealed, firstly, a zonal flow pattern with pronounced decadal to centenial time scale variations, secondly, a monopole pattern over northwest Europe and thirdly, a pattern modulating the meridional flow component over Europe. These 500year SLP reconstructions should be useful for modelling studies, particulary for analyses of low-frequency atmospheric variability and for circulation dynamics.

Links between flood events in central Europe since AD 1500 and large‐scale atmospheric circulation modes

“…[5] Atmospheric circulation analyses are based on gridded SLP data objectively reconstructed back to AD 1500 for the North-Atlantic-European area by Luterbacher et al [2002] providing seasonal resolution until AD 1658, monthly resolution afterwards. Reconstruction skill has proved to be best during winter time thus supporting focus on this season, too.…”

Reconstructing climate variability from Greenland ice sheet accumulation: An ERA40 study

“…The accumulation rates from the NASAU ice core (73.84°N, 49.49°W) in NorthWestern Greenland, for instance, revealed a significant correlation (r = À0.57) with the instrumental NAOI. However, the agreement among the various pre-instrumental NAOI reconstructions including NASAU is not significant [Luterbacher et al, 2002a[Luterbacher et al, , 2002b.…”

The Irish famine of 1740–1741: famine vulnerability and "climate migration"

“…Luterbacher et al (2002) argue that possibly a stable high-pressure ridge over the eastern Atlantic was dominating mid-and upper-tropospheric circulation flow during winter 1739-1740 (Figs. 4 and 5).…”

“…Cold air during winter and early spring mostly flows around ice-shielded Greenland. Therefore, it seems that stationary atmospheric circulation patterns during winter and spring 1740 significantly conditioned sea surface temperatures and marine boundaries along the European Atlantic coasts and also influenced the conditions over Ireland (Luterbacher et al, 2002). Briffa and Jones (2006) suggest also the development of a persistent, cold blocking high over central Europe, which reached unusually far west.…”