Reconstruction of past backyard skating seasons in the Original Six NHL cities from citizen science data

Abstract

• Citizen science data helped identify key temperature thresholds for building and maintaining outdoor skating rinks. • Since 1942, temperatures are becoming less favourable for building backyard skating rinks in five of the Original Six NHL cities. • Toronto has experienced the most significant loss of skating days. This study conducted linear and change-point analyses of historical trends since 1942 in the length and number of days suitable for skating on backyard rinks in the "Original Six" National Hockey League cities of Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Montreal, New York, and Toronto. Analysis is based on the relationship between ambient air temperatures and the probability of skating, using thresholds identified through the RinkWatch citizen science project. In all cities, coefficient estimates suggest the number of high-probability skating days per winter is declining, with easternmost cities displaying notable declines and growing inter-annual variability in skating days in recent decades. Linear analysis shows a statistically significant decline in Toronto, with a step-change emerging in 1980, after which there is on average one-third fewer skating days compared with preceding decades. The outdoor skating season trends towards later start dates in Boston, Montreal, New York, and Toronto. Future monitoring of outdoor rinks provides an opportunity for engaging the public in identification of winter warming trends that might otherwise be imperceptible, and for raising awareness of the impacts of climate change.

Future prospects for backyard skating rinks look bleak in a warming climate

“…The authors compared their results with observed variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Pacific North American teleconnection pattern and found the association to be statistically significant beyond 99%. In a later study, Malik et al (2020) reviewed daily winter temperature records since the 1940s for the "Original Six" National Hockey League (NHL) cities of Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Montreal, New York City, and Toronto. Each of the six cities displayed a decreasing number of especially cold days per winter (i.e., colder than −5.5°C) that are ideally suited for outdoor skating rinks, with Toronto exhibiting the most notable decline.…”

Bridge over changing waters–Citizen science for detecting the impacts of climate change on water

“…Citizen science data can complement the measurements taken by official agencies and provide valuable spatially distributed data. There is a growing number of water-related citizen science projects, such as CrowdHydrology [6], RinkWatch [7], CoCoRaSH (https://www.cocorahs.org/), Stream Tracker [8] and CrowdWater (https:// crowdwater.ch). However, the time series from most projects are still rather short.…”