Reconstruction of a 1,910-y-long locust series reveals consistent associations with climate fluctuations in China

Abstract

It is becoming increasingly clear that global warming is taking place; however, its long-term effects on biological populations are largely unknown due to lack of long-term data. Here, we reconstructed a 1,910-y-long time series of outbreaks of Oriental migratory locusts ( Locusta migratoria manilensis ) in China, on the basis of information extracted from >8,000 historical documents. First by analyzing the most recent period with the best data quality using generalized additive models, we found statistically significant associations between the reconstructed locust abundance and indexes of precipitation and temperature at both annual (A.D. 1512–1911) and decadal (A.D. 1000–1900) scales: There were more locusts under dry and cold conditions and when locust abundance was high in the preceding year or decade. Second, by exploring locust–environment correlations using a 200-y moving window, we tested whether these associations also hold further back in time. The locust–precipitation correlation was found to hold at least as far back as to A.D. 500, supporting the robustness of this link as well as the quality of both reconstructions. The locust–temperature correlation was weaker and less consistent, which may reflect this link being indirect and thus more easily moderated by other factors. We anticipate that further analysis of this unique time series now available to the scientific community will continue to provide insights into biological consequences of climate change in the years to come.

Long-term Entomological Research on Canopy Arthropods in a Tropical Rainforest in Puerto Rico

“…Particularly long records include nearly 2,000 years for the Oriental migratory locust, Locusta migratoria manilensis (Meyen), in China (Stige et al 2007, Tian et al 2011); 1,173 years for the larch budmoth, Zeiraphera diniana (Guenee), in the European Alps (Esper et al 2007); and 622 years for the Pandora moth, Coloradia pandora Blake, in western North America (Speer et al 2001). Such long records aid greatly in identifying environmental factors responsible for population change (Morris 1964).…”

Population fluctuations of moths and small rodents in relation to plant reproduction indices in southern Norway

“…All predictor variables were represented as natural cubic splines with four knots (e.g., Tian et al 2011). For each moth species, we present a model for each of the three possible food plant related indices, given that these indices contributed with a positive effect.…”

Wavelet analysis in ecology and epidemiology: impact of statistical tests

“…Some of these papers were concerned with the determination of the characteristics of time series and the analysis of their possible association with environmental signals. The use of wavelets is of great interest in the case of the analysis of very long populational and environmental time series such as those that come from the rich China archives [9][10][11][12]. It is clear that the probability of finding marked non-stationarities increases with the length of the time series.…”