Reconstructing the peak flow of historical flood events using a hydraulic model: The city of Bath, United Kingdom

Abstract

Historical flood events on the River Avon in the city of Bath were reconstructed using a 1D hydraulic model. The model represents the river prior to the completion of the Bath flood defence scheme and was developed based on archived data on archival materials including historical cross sections of channel geometry, technical drawings of hydraulic structures, descriptions of floodplain extent, epigraphic markings and photographs. The model was calibrated on two historical floods for which peak flow values were available from hydrological data (March 1947 and December 1960) and the calibration was based on adjustment of Manning's n as well as the introduction of floodplains identified from historical maps and photos. Subsequently, the peak flow was assessed for a total of 16 events for which flood marks existed in the centre of the city. A composite annual maximum series of peak flow was created upstream of Bath city centre and presented a flow series consisting of data from 1866 to present day. Finally, flood frequency analysis was undertaken on the dataset, showing that the inclusion of historical floods increased the 1 in 100 year design flood by up to 30%, that is, a substantial influence.

Deep Learning–Based Building Attribute Estimation from Google Street View Images for Flood Risk Assessment Using Feature Fusion and Task Relation Encoding

“…Flood risk assessment and response consists of two aspects: (1) estimating the frequency and magnitude of floods, and (2) assessing the vulnerability of the built environment against them. The former is a science in itself (Hall and Howell 1963;Hailegeorgis and Alfredsen 2017;Stamataki and Kjeldsen 2021); however, the latter has been met with markedly less enthusiasm (Wright 2015). Our study focuses on the latter.…”

Reconstruction of the 1374 Rhine river flood event around Cologne region using 1D-2D coupled hydraulic modelling approach

“…In other words, improved quantification of design discharges corresponding to large return periods can be achieved by precise reconstruction of the most severe historic flood events. Therefore, many studies have focused on reconstructing historic flood discharges based on various sources such as written records, flood marks, and flood deposits (Balasch et al, 2010;Benito et al, 2021;Bomers et al, 2019b;2019c;Elleder et al, 2013;Herget and Meurs, 2010;O'Connell et al, 2002;Payrastre et al, 2011;Reis and Stedinger, 2005;Ruiz-Bellet et al, 2014;Stamataki and Kjeldsen, 2021;Toonen et al, 2013;Van der Meulen et al, 2021a).…”

Reconstruction of the 1974 flash flood in Sóller (Mallorca) using a hydraulic 1D/2D model

“…Incorporating historical flood events when estimating the risk for future flood events can help with the associated uncertainty as it reduces the risk for the required interpolation of these values (Stamataki and Kjeldsen, 2021). Furthermore, looking into these events in more depth and modelling them numerically, can provide a baseline for flood paths, areas of greatest danger and the severity of potential effects.…”

“…For the majority of cases, historical flood data and accompanying meteorological data is limited. The evidence primarily used in flood reconstruction includes epigraphic evidence (flood water levels marks), photographs and witness documentary sources (Elleder, 2010;Herget et al, 2014;Stamataki and Kjeldsen, 2021). These sources in conjunction with hydraulic models play an important role in reconstructing floods and predicting future impacts.…”

“…These sources in conjunction with hydraulic models play an important role in reconstructing floods and predicting future impacts. Stamataki and Kjeldsen (2021) reconstructed 16 historical flood events in the city of Bath using a 1D hydraulic model. They used recorded peak flow values to calibrate the model and assessed the peak flow of historical flood events using epigraphic evidence in the city (flood marks).…”