Reconstructing Terrestrial Paleoclimates: A Comparison of the Co‐Existence Approach, Bayesian and Probability Reconstruction Techniques Using the UK Neogene

Abstract

Little is known about the development of the modern oceanic climate regime of northwest Europe in deep time. During the Neogene (23.03-2.588 Ma), the British Isles had a unique location on the northwest edge of the Eurasian continent forming a peninsula separating the Atlantic Ocean from the North Sea (Harzhauser & Piller, 2007). Neogene sediments of the UK are therefore ideal for understanding the development of Neogene oceanic climates.The modern European climate experiences a prevalence of the westerlies in winter with summer climates being highly latitudinally diverse. Western coastal areas, such as the UK, experience an oceanic, or maritime, climate with highly latitudinally diverse summer climates relative to southern Europe with its Mediterranean climate and dry summers and the subhumid-semi-arid continental climate of eastern Europe (Rohli & Vega, 2008;Vines, 1985). However, during the late Middle Miocene (Serravallian, 13.82-11.62 Ma) summer precipitation patterns suggest Europe was instead dominated by a trade wind system flowing from the northeast to southwest, whilst the Late Miocene was controlled by the westerlies (Böhme, 2004;Quan et al., 2014). However, much of this work is based upon the central European basins and does not, potentially, reflect terrestrial environments with a strong oceanic control. In addition, the majority of terrestrial paleoclimate reconstructions are generated through the Co-existence Approach (Burls et al., 2021;Utescher et al., 2014). Whilst this has given us unprecedented understanding of terrestrial climate development (e.g., Utescher et al., 2017), the reconstruction of a Abstract Neogene sediments in the UK are ideally situated for understanding the early development of hydrological dynamics and atmospheric circulation that led to the modern oceanic climate of northwest Europe. Onshore Neogene fossiliferous deposits in the UK are limited to the solution pipe fills at Trwyn y Parc in Anglesey (Middle Miocene), the Brassington Formation of Derbyshire (Serravallian-Tortonian), and the Coralline Crag Formation (latest Zanclean-earliest Piacenzian) and Red Crag Formation (Piacenzian-Gelasian) in southeast England. Palynoflora from these localities can be used to provide snapshots into the climate at the time of deposition, however, palaeobotanical-based reconstructions are typically lacking in their poor estimation of error. Therefore, we present the first pre-Quaternary application of two terrestrial climate reconstruction techniques: CREST (Climate Reconstruction SofTware) and CRACLE (Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation), that use Bayesian and likelihood estimation probability respectively to generate a new palaeoclimate reconstruction, and compare this to Co-existence Approach reconstructions from the UK and continental Europe. Our study shows how Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) declines by 3°-6°C, Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) declines by 480-600 mm and Precipitation Seasonality approximately halves throughout the Neogene. CREST and ...

The fungal ecology of the Brassington Formation (Middle Miocene) of Derbyshire, United Kingdom, and a new method for palaeoclimate reconstruction

“…However, this cooling is not recorded in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic region, where temperature gradients appear flat and indicate the presence of the warm oceanic current (Super et al, 2020). This warm current was likely responsible for the relatively warm temperatures observed in terrestrial palaeobotanical sites in western Europe (Utescher et al, 2015;Gibson et al, 2022;McCoy et al, in review). Evidence for Miocene biodiversity, climate, and environments in the United Kingdom (UK) are limited to isolated and poorly dated deposits, of which the Brassington Formation of central England is the most extensive and best dated (Walsh et al, 1987, Wang et al, 2018Pound et al, 2012b;Pound and Riding, 2016).…”

“…Both studies proposed higher than modern Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) of 1096-1562 mm (Pound and Riding, 2016) and 955 mm ± 150 mm (Gibson et al, 2022). However, Pound and Riding (2016) proposed a degree of precipitation seasonality in the Serravallian of the United Kingdom, whereas Gibson et al (2022) reconstructed a low degree of seasonality. Recent research has provided the first evidence of fossil fungal remains (Pound et al, 2019), and continued study revealed an abundant and diverse fungal assemblage.…”

“…Climate reconstructions based on the co-existence approach indicate a Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) of 17-18.4 • C, with mild winters of > 6.2 • C and hot summers of 26.5-28.3 • C (Pound and Riding, 2016). However, Gibson et al (2022) proposed a cooler reconstruction using statistical techniques. In their reconstructions, MAT was reconstructed as 13.7 • C ± 0.3 • C, with winters of 4.3 • C ± 0.8 • C and warm summers of 21.9 • C ± 0.3 • C (Gibson et al, 2022).…”

“…However, Gibson et al (2022) proposed a cooler reconstruction using statistical techniques. In their reconstructions, MAT was reconstructed as 13.7 • C ± 0.3 • C, with winters of 4.3 • C ± 0.8 • C and warm summers of 21.9 • C ± 0.3 • C (Gibson et al, 2022). Both studies proposed higher than modern Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) of 1096-1562 mm (Pound and Riding, 2016) and 955 mm ± 150 mm (Gibson et al, 2022).…”

“…In their reconstructions, MAT was reconstructed as 13.7 • C ± 0.3 • C, with winters of 4.3 • C ± 0.8 • C and warm summers of 21.9 • C ± 0.3 • C (Gibson et al, 2022). Both studies proposed higher than modern Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) of 1096-1562 mm (Pound and Riding, 2016) and 955 mm ± 150 mm (Gibson et al, 2022). However, Pound and Riding (2016) proposed a degree of precipitation seasonality in the Serravallian of the United Kingdom, whereas Gibson et al (2022) reconstructed a low degree of seasonality.…”