Reconstructed summertime (June–July) streamflow dating back to 1788 CE in the Kazakh Uplands as inferred from tree rings

Zhao, Xiaoen; Zhang, Ruibo; Chen, Feng; Майсупова, Багила; Kirillov, Vitaliy; Mambetov, Bulkair; Yu, Shulong; He, Qing; Dosmanbetov, Daniyar; Kelgenbayev, Nurzhan

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101007

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…Not surprisingly, the reconstructions also suggest periods of greater streamflow changes than what was captured on the instrumental record, indicating that water resource planning is based on a frame of reference that is limited in comparison with the streamflow reconstructions. It has been observed that instrumental records do not capture the full range of natural streamflow change in Central Asian tree‐ring studies (Chen et al, 2013; Chen et al, 2022; Panyushkina et al, 2018; Zhang, Ermenbaev, et al, 2020; Zhang, He, et al, 2020; Zhao et al, 2022). The rapidly growing population in Tajikistan is likely to compound the potential volatility of water resources (Baggio et al, 2021; Howard & Howard, 2016; Kobuliev et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To ensure the integrity of the climate data, gridded monthly climate data was also obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK (Harris et al, 2020) for northern Tajikistan for 1938-2016 (averaged over 38 30 0 -39 30 0 N, 67 30 0 -68 30 0 E). Previous studies have proved the rationality of CRU data in Central Asia (Akkemik et al, 2020;Zhao et al, 2022). The streamflow data of the Kafirnigan River came from the Tortki hydrological station, located at the downstream of the main stream (37 34 0 N, 68 08 0 E, 431 m a.s.l), which is the main national hydrological station.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Tree‐ring chronologies are generally used to indicate high‐to‐low‐frequency fluctuations in climate and hydrology over hundreds to thousands of years, and hydrology knowledge in tree rings can be analysed in its own right to provide a glimpse into what the streamflow has been in the past and what we can expect it to be in the future (Fritts, 1976; Yuan et al., 2007; Cook et al, 2013; Meko et al, 2012; Woodhouse & Pederson, 2018; Liu et al, 2020; Rao et al, 2020). Several streamflow reconstructions from Central Asia have been undertaken in recent decades, making it possible to describe the water resource history of Central Asia (Chen et al, 2022; Chen, He, et al, 2017; Panyushkina et al, 2018; Zhang, Ermenbaev, et al, 2020; Zhang, He, et al, 2020; Zhao et al, 2022). But compared to the Syr Darya River basin, for example, the number of sampling sites from the Amu Darya River basin is relatively small.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Streamflow reconstruction in the Kafirnigan River, Tajikistan since 1568 CE reveals a linkage between southern Central Asian hydrological variation and ENSO

Zulfiyor

Opała‐Owczarek

Chen

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Long‐term hydroclimate change can provide reliable reference for water resources management in Central Asia. However, only a few palaeohydrological records exist in Tajikistan. To obtain a long‐term perspective on hydrological changes in Tajikistan, we developed, for the first time, a streamflow reconstruction from September of the previous year to June of the current one in the Kafirnigan River basin, based on Juniperus semiglobosa tree‐ring width indices from the Iskanderkul area in northern Tajikistan. The streamflow reconstruction explains 40% of the actual streamflow variance during the period 1939–1993. Spatial correlation analyses with gridded precipitation data indicate that our streamflow reconstruction contains a strong regional hydroclimatic signal for southern Central Asia. The high and low intervals of our streamflow reconstruction are closely related to the interdecadal variations of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our reconstructed streamflow is significantly correlated with sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and northern Indian Ocean, indicate the existence of remarkable 11‐, 5.6–5.7‐, 4.3‐, 2.6‐, 2.3‐ and 2.0‐year cycles, and suggest a relationship between southern Central Asian streamflow variations and ENSO activity.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Streamflow reconstruction in the Kafirnigan River, Tajikistan since 1568 CE reveals a linkage between southern Central Asian hydrological variation and ENSO

Zulfiyor

Opała‐Owczarek

Chen

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The reconstruction method, based on Gangopadhyay et al (2009) (hereafter, G09), is a nonparametric approach. Details of the original method are described in G09 in the context of Colorado River reconstruction, and the method has recently been applied to streamflow reconstruction in central Asia (e.g., Zhao et al, 2022). In this new reconstruction, for any year prior to 1906, principal components analysis is used to identify the most similar years, K-nearest neighbors (KNNs), or K nearest neighbors, in the instrumental period, 1906-1999, and the KNNs are resampled to develop an ensemble of reconstructed flows.…”

Section: Reconstruction and Verificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree Rings Reveal Unmatched 2nd Century Drought in the Colorado River Basin

Gangopadhyay

Woodhouse

McCabe

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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The ongoing 22‐year drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) has been extremely severe, even in the context of the longest available tree‐ring reconstruction of annual flow at Lees Ferry, Arizona, dating back to 762 CE. While many southwestern drought assessments have been limited to the past 1,200 years, longer paleorecords of moisture variability do exist for the UCRB. Here, gridded drought‐atlas data in the UCRB domain along with naturalized streamflow data from the instrumental period (1906–2021) are used in a K‐nearest neighbor nonparametric algorithm to develop a streamflow reconstruction for the Lees Ferry gage starting in 1 CE. The reconstruction reveals a second‐century drought unmatched in severity by the current drought or by well‐documented medieval period droughts in the UCRB. Although data are sparse, analysis of individual long tree‐ring records and other paleoclimatic data also support the occurrence of an exceptional second‐century drought.

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“…By analysing the tree‐ring chronology, researchers can gain insight into the relationship between past climate dynamics and vegetation dynamics (Chen et al, 2023; Cook et al, 1998; Meko et al, 1995). Water resource fluctuations are often reflected in the tree‐ring width in regions with significant precipitation fluctuations (Fang et al, 2010; Zhao et al, 2022; Zittis et al, 2022). In arid or nonriverine regions, rainfall becomes an important source of water vapour transport, and relatively wide tree rings can indicate higher rainfall levels, forming a sequence of tree rings for reconstructing historical precipitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree‐ring‐based reconstruction of the precipitation variability in the middle Taihang Mountains (1608–2021)

Hou,

Zhao,

Chen

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Understanding historical droughts in northern China is challenging due to the limited time records of meteorological stations. In this study, we reconstructed the precipitation variability in the middle Taihang Mountains over 414 years by using the tree‐ring width of Pinus tabulaeformis. Based on our climate response analysis, Pinus tabulaeformis growth at the sampling sites was mainly restricted by the total precipitation from August of the previous year to June of the current year (P8‐C6), which was used as the dependent variable for precipitation reconstruction. Spatial analysis demonstrated that the reconstructed precipitation contained obvious spatial representativeness in the Taihang Mountains. We compared the precipitation sequence with other dryness/wetness sequences around the study area, revealing common drought events in most of northern China. Furthermore, the multi‐taper method (MTM) demonstrated a significant period of 2–4 years of the reconstructed precipitation. The precipitation variability in the Taihang Mountains may be influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and has exhibited a negative correlation in recent decades. This study has reconstructed the historical changes in wet and dry conditions to offer a reference for the utilization of modern water resources, especially by linking the decrease in precipitation in the study area with the downfall of the Ming Dynasty.

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Reconstructed summertime (June–July) streamflow dating back to 1788 CE in the Kazakh Uplands as inferred from tree rings

Cited by 9 publications

References 76 publications

Streamflow reconstruction in the Kafirnigan River, Tajikistan since 1568 CE reveals a linkage between southern Central Asian hydrological variation and ENSO

Streamflow reconstruction in the Kafirnigan River, Tajikistan since 1568 CE reveals a linkage between southern Central Asian hydrological variation and ENSO

Tree Rings Reveal Unmatched 2nd Century Drought in the Colorado River Basin

Tree‐ring‐based reconstruction of the precipitation variability in the middle Taihang Mountains (1608–2021)

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