Reconciling Svalbard Glacier Mass Balance

Schuler, Thomas; Kohler, Jack; Elagina, Nelly; Hagen, Jon Ove; Hodson, Andy; Jania, Jacek; Kääb, Andreas; Luks, Bartłomiej; Małecki, Jakub; Moholdt, Geir; Pohjola, Veijo; Sobota, Ireneusz; Pelt, Ward van

doi:10.3389/feart.2020.00156

Cited by 98 publications

(110 citation statements)

References 110 publications

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“…More recently, the ocean around Iceland warmed after 1995 which correlates with the enhanced mass loss after 1995 in Iceland (Björnsson et al, 2013, this study) and Norway (Andreassen et al, 2020). The glaciers in Svalbard also shifted from a positive to a negative regime around 1990 (Østby et al, 2017;Schuler et al, 2020). The cooler oceanic conditions after 2010 (ICES, 2018) cooled the atmosphere and thereby reduced the mass loss in Iceland and Norway, and in Greenland the mass loss slowed down after a record mass-loss year in 2012 (Shepherd et al, 2019;Velicogna et al, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 71%

Glacier Changes in Iceland From ∼1890 to 2019

et al. 2020

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The volume of glaciers in Iceland (∼3,400 km3 in 2019) corresponds to about 9 mm of potential global sea level rise. In this study, observations from 98.7% of glacier covered areas in Iceland (in 2019) are used to construct a record of mass change of Icelandic glaciers since the end of the 19th century i.e. the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in Iceland. Glaciological (in situ) mass-balance measurements have been conducted on Vatnajökull, Langjökull, and Hofsjökull since the glaciological years 1991/92, 1996/97, and 1987/88, respectively. Geodetic mass balance for multiple glaciers and many periods has been estimated from reconstructed surface maps, published maps, aerial photographs, declassified spy satellite images, modern satellite stereo imagery, and airborne lidar. To estimate the maximum glacier volume at the end of the LIA, a volume–area scaling method is used based on the observed area and volume from the three largest ice caps (over 90% of total ice mass) at 5–7 different times each, in total 19 points. The combined record shows a total mass change of −540 ± 130 Gt (−4.2 ± 1.0 Gt a−1 on average) during the study period (1890/91 to 2018/19). This mass loss corresponds to 1.50 ± 0.36 mm sea level equivalent or 16 ± 4% of mass stored in Icelandic glaciers around 1890. Almost half of the total mass change occurred in 1994/95 to 2018/19, or −240 ± 20 Gt (−9.6 ± 0.8 Gt a−1 on average), with most rapid loss in 1994/95 to 2009/10 (mass change rate −11.6 ± 0.8 Gt a−1). During the relatively warm period 1930/31–1949/50, mass loss rates were probably close to those observed since 1994, and in the colder period 1980/81–1993/94, the glaciers gained mass at a rate of 1.5 ± 1.0 Gt a−1. For other periods of this study, the glaciers were either close to equilibrium or experienced mild loss rates. For the periods of AR6 IPCC, the mass change rates are −3.1 ± 1.1 Gt a−1 for 1900/01–1989/90, −4.3 ± 1.0 Gt a−1 for 1970/71–2017/18, −8.3 ± 0.8 Gt a−1 for 1992/93–2017/18, and −7.6 ± 0.8 Gt a−1 for 2005/06–2017/18.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 71%

Glacier Changes in Iceland From ∼1890 to 2019

et al. 2020

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“…250 m to 1 km, using positive degree day 25 or energy balance models 26,27 to show that Svalbard recently lost mass following an increase in summer ablation (Supplementary Table 1). Similar conclusions were drawn by upscaling in situ SMB measurements to all Svalbard land ice 12 , but little remains known about the temporal and spatial variabilities of the surface mass loss.…”

supporting

confidence: 62%

“…Not only the recent mass trends but also the seasonal and interannual variabilities are accurately reproduced. Supplementary Table 1 compares our results to other mass change estimates derived from geodetic techniques 1,11 , GRACE [5][6][7][8]10 , SMB models including a positive degree day 25 , two energy balance models 26,27 , two regional climate models 21,22 , and in situ measurements 12 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“… Time series of monthly cumulative modelled SMB, measured cumulative solid ice discharge ( D ) 11 , 12 and reconstructed cumulative mass balance (MB = SMB− D ) for the period 1958–2018. Observed mass change derived from GRACE (2002–2016), ICESat (2003–2009) and CryoSat-2 (2010–2018) are also shown.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Combined in situ and remote-sensing measurements show that Svalbard land ice has been losing mass at strongly fluctuating rates since the early 2000s 1,[5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12] . According to gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) data, mass loss virtually stopped in 2005-2012, between two periods of sustained mass loss (2002)(2003)(2004) and 2013-2016) 10 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Low elevation of Svalbard glaciers drives high mass loss variability

et al. 2020

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Compared to other Arctic ice masses, Svalbard glaciers are low-elevated with flat interior accumulation areas, resulting in a marked peak in their current hypsometry (area-elevation distribution) at ~450 m above sea level. Since summer melt consistently exceeds winter snowfall, these low-lying glaciers can only survive by refreezing a considerable fraction of surface melt and rain in the porous firn layer covering their accumulation zones. We use a high-resolution climate model to show that modest atmospheric warming in the mid-1980s forced the firn zone to retreat upward by ~100 m to coincide with the hypsometry peak. This led to a rapid areal reduction of firn cover available for refreezing, and strongly increased runoff from dark, bare ice areas, amplifying mass loss from all elevations. As the firn line fluctuates around the hypsometry peak in the current climate, Svalbard glaciers will continue to lose mass and show high sensitivity to temperature perturbations.

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Where will widening occur in an outwash braidplain? A new approach to detecting controls on fluvial lateral erosion in a glacierized catchment (north‐western Spitsbergen, Svalbard)

Weckwerth

Sobota

Greń

2021

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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The dynamics of fluvial system evolution depend on fluvial processes and their driving forces associated with climatic variations, which affect changes in the morphology of river channels and floodplains. Neither channel slope and morphology, nor the properties of fluvial sediment have previously been considered as determinants of active braidplain widening on outwash plains (formed from valley/alpine glaciers and confined by pre-existing topography) in the High Arctic region and in the forefields of retreating glaciers. Factors determining widening of braidplain activity of the Waldemar River outwash (north-western Spitsbergen, Svalbard) were analysed on the basis of geomorphological, sedimentological, glaciological and meteorological research, and indicate significant multiple correlations between meltwater discharge, precipitation, braidplain width, morphology of the braided channel and the textural features of braidplain deposits. The capability of multivariate adaptive regression splines to detect these relationships was described, and threshold values were identified. The results indicate that the rate of active braidplain widening is proportional to the meltwater outflow in proglacial rivers, which can decrease despite a growing rate of glacial ablation. A proposed model enables us to predict zones of braidplain prone to widening activity in the High Arctic (humid) outwash fans and plains as well as fans developed in arid intermountain basins. The necessary conditions to activate braidplain widening processes were (1) spatial changes in the outwash feeding system due to glacier terminus retreat and (2) crossing the thresholds in passive factors (S and d 50 ) controlling lateral erosion intensity. As a result, the braidplain reached a new dynamic equilibrium, in which high-magnitude-low-frequency extreme meltwater discharges were of particular importance in terms of braidplain dynamics and are the dominant controls on the pattern of distributary channels.

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Reconciling Svalbard Glacier Mass Balance

Cited by 98 publications

References 110 publications

Glacier Changes in Iceland From ∼1890 to 2019

Glacier Changes in Iceland From ∼1890 to 2019

Low elevation of Svalbard glaciers drives high mass loss variability

Where will widening occur in an outwash braidplain? A new approach to detecting controls on fluvial lateral erosion in a glacierized catchment (north‐western Spitsbergen, Svalbard)

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