Reconciling Oil Palm Expansion and Climate Change Mitigation in Kalimantan, Indonesia

Abstract

Our society faces the pressing challenge of increasing agricultural production while minimizing negative consequences on ecosystems and the global climate. Indonesia, which has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from deforestation while doubling production of several major agricultural commodities, exemplifies this challenge. Here we focus on palm oil, the world’s most abundant vegetable oil and a commodity that has contributed significantly to Indonesia’s economy. Most oil palm expansion in the country has occurred at the expense of forests, resulting in significant GHG emissions. We examine the extent to which land management policies can resolve the apparently conflicting goals of oil palm expansion and GHG mitigation in Kalimantan, a major oil palm growing region of Indonesia. Using a logistic regression model to predict the locations of new oil palm between 2010 and 2020 we evaluate the impacts of six alternative policy scenarios on future emissions. We estimate net emissions of 128.4–211.4 MtCO2 yr-1 under business as usual expansion of oil palm plantations. The impact of diverting new plantations to low carbon stock land depends on the design of the policy. We estimate that emissions can be reduced by 9-10% by extending the current moratorium on new concessions in primary forests and peat lands, 35% by limiting expansion on all peat and forestlands, 46% by limiting expansion to areas with moderate carbon stocks, and 55–60% by limiting expansion to areas with low carbon stocks. Our results suggest that these policies would reduce oil palm profits only moderately but would vary greatly in terms of cost-effectiveness of emissions reductions. We conclude that a carefully designed and implemented oil palm expansion plan can contribute significantly towards Indonesia’s national emissions mitigation goal, while allowing oil palm area to double.

Impacts of current and projected oil palm plantation expansion on air quality over Southeast Asia

“…For the modern-day scenario, we use a land use map developed by Miettinen et al (2012), which describes land use across insular SEA (−10 to 10 • N, 95 to 140 • E) in 2010 on a 250 m grid, and includes a land classification for palm plantations. The future expansion scenario maps are adapted from Marlier et al (2015b) and Austin et al (2015). Marlier et al (2015b) developed a variety of scenarios at 1 km resolution to understand changes in fire emissions associated with land use change in Sumatra.…”

“…Austin et al (2015) mapped the future oil palm distribution in Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) using a logistic regression model at 250 m resolution to understand the impact that oil palm could have on emissions of CO 2 . We constrained that logistic regression model to a total of 3.6 Mha of oil palm expansion to create a map for the 2020 distribution of oil palm in Kalimantan, following the totals given by Austin et al (2015). This leads to an increase of 108 % in total palm coverage over Kalimantan from 2010 to 2020.…”

“…The next is a simulation we call "Modern Palm", using the 2010 distribution from Miettinen et al (2012). The third simulation is "Future Palm," and uses the merged land maps from Marlier et al (2015b) and Austin et al (2015) for Sumatra and Kalimantan. In addition, we perform sensitivity scenarios for the Modern Palm distribution to disaggregate land use change-driven impacts on BVOC emissions from dry deposition and soil NO x emissions; this is referred to as "BVOC-only".…”

“…According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO, 2015), palm oil production in SEA has grown by a factor of 5 over the past 20 years. By 2020, the total area occupied by oil palm plantations in SEA is expected to increase even further (Austin et al, 2015;Marlier et al, 2015b). This represents a significant and rapid change in land use over a relatively small region.…”

“…Austin et al (2015) suggest that up to 47 MtC yr −1 will be emitted due to oil palm land use change in Kalimantan alone from 2010 to 2020. Carlson et al (2013) estimate that the plantations could generate over 25 % of Indonesia's projected carbon emissions by 2020.…”