Reconciling justice and attribution research to advance climate policy

Huggel, Christian; Wallimann-Helmer, Ivo; Stone, Dáithí A.; Crämer, Wolfgang

doi:10.1038/nclimate3104

Cited by 69 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…Similarly, the United Nations mechanisms for climate change compensation, adaptation, and preparation create a practical need to quantify the contribution of historical emissions to individual extreme events (e.g., ref. 17). Finally, connections between historical warming and individual events have become an explicit motivation for decision makers and the public (e.g., ref.…”

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confidence: 99%

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

Diffenbaugh

Singh

Mankin

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

520

313

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Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent. event attribution | climate extremes | climate change | global warming T he last decade has witnessed increasing interest in possible connections between historical global warming and individual extreme climate events (1-9). This interest is grounded in both scientific and practical motivations. First, extremes underlie many of the most acute stresses on natural and human systems (10, 11). Understanding the influence of historical warming on extremes is therefore critical for detecting climate change impacts (12, 13). Second, trends in the frequency and/or intensity of extremes have already been detected (10, 11), implying increasing probability of events that are unprecedented in the observed record. Third, continued global warming is likely to cause widespread emergence of unprecedented events in the future (e.g., refs. 10 and 14).Effective management of climate-related risks therefore requires robust quantification of the probability of extremes in the current and future climate (10). For example, quantification of risk and liability (8,15), and design of resilient infrastructure and resource management systems (16), must account for both historical nonstationarity and the likelihood of future changes. Similarly, the United Nations mechanisms for climate change compensation, adaptation, and preparation create a practical need to quantify the contribution of historical emissions to individual extreme events (e.g., ref. 17). Finally, connections between historical warming and individual events have b...

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

Diffenbaugh

Singh

Mankin

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

520

313

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…While hazards and risks, geomorphology and hydrology have traditionally dominated in GLOF research, recently other aspects such as climate justice have come to the forefront (e.g. Huggel et al, 2016;see Sect. 4.3).…”

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confidence: 99%

GLOFs in the WOS: bibliometrics, geographies and global trends of research on glacial lake outburst floods (Web of Science, 1979–2016)

Emmer

2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Research on glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) -specific low-frequency, high-magnitude floods originating in glacial lakes, including jökulhlaups -is well justified in the context of glacier ice loss and glacial lake evolution in glacierized areas all over the world. Increasing GLOF research activities, which are documented by the increasing number of published research items, have been observed in the past few decades; however, comprehensive insight into the GLOF research community, its global bibliometrics, geographies and trends in research is missing. To fill this gap, a set of 892 GLOF research items published in the Web of Science database covering the period 1979-2016 was analysed. General bibliometric characteristics, citations and references were analysed, revealing a certain change in the publishing paradigm over time. Furthermore, the global geographies of research on GLOFs were studied, focusing on (i) where GLOFs are studied, (ii) who studies GLOFs, (iii) the export of research on GLOFs and (iv) international collaboration. The observed trends and links to the challenges ahead are discussed and placed in a broader context.

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“…This selection bias has societal impacts. Huggel et al [2016] argue that the countries which would most benefit from EEA, especially in the context of loss and damage, are also those where there are no EEA case studies. The number of studies of extreme events happening in underrepresented countries, which are also the most vulnerable, nonetheless keeps increasing with each BAMS issue [Stott et al, 2016].…”

Section: Choice Of the Eventmentioning

confidence: 99%