Reconciling disagreement over climate–conflict results in Africa

Hsiang, Solomon; Meng, Kyle C.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1316006111

Cited by 70 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The question whether or not climate-related factors have significantly contributed to recent armed-conflict outbreaks has been heavily disputed in the scientific literature (33)(34)(35)(36)(37)(38). Although a sequence of studies has suggested that a large number of outbreaks of armed conflicts in modern as well as premodern times have been associated with climatic variability (33,36,37,(39)(40)(41), the robustness of these findings and underlying mechanisms are controversially discussed (10,37,42,43).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although a sequence of studies has suggested that a large number of outbreaks of armed conflicts in modern as well as premodern times have been associated with climatic variability (33,36,37,(39)(40)(41), the robustness of these findings and underlying mechanisms are controversially discussed (10,37,42,43). Other literature that assessed the influence of climate signals on armed-conflict outbreak risk did not report a robust connection (9,44,45).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries

Schleußner

Donges

Donner

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

288

175

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Social and political tensions keep on fueling armed conflicts around the world. Although each conflict is the result of an individual context-specific mixture of interconnected factors, ethnicity appears to play a prominent and almost ubiquitous role in many of them. This overall state of affairs is likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change and in particular climate-related natural disasters. Ethnic divides might serve as predetermined conflict lines in case of rapidly emerging societal tensions arising from disruptive events like natural disasters. Here, we hypothesize that climate-related disaster occurrence enhances armed-conflict outbreak risk in ethnically fractionalized countries. Using event coincidence analysis, we test this hypothesis based on data on armed-conflict outbreaks and climate-related natural disasters for the period 1980-2010. Globally, we find a coincidence rate of 9% regarding armed-conflict outbreak and disaster occurrence such as heat waves or droughts. Our analysis also reveals that, during the period in question, about 23% of conflict outbreaks in ethnically highly fractionalized countries robustly coincide with climatic calamities. Although we do not report evidence that climate-related disasters act as direct triggers of armed conflicts, the disruptive nature of these events seems to play out in ethnically fractionalized societies in a particularly tragic way. This observation has important implications for future security policies as several of the world's most conflict-prone regions, including North and Central Africa as well as Central Asia, are both exceptionally vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and characterized by deep ethnic divides.climate-related natural disasters | ethnic fractionalization | armed conflicts | event coincidence analysis

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries

Schleußner

Donges

Donner

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

288

175

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A household's water needs not being met can negatively impact their desire to undertake conflict activities in pursuit of water resources, opting instead to maintain collaborative relationships [50]. Needs not being met may also positively impact the potential for conflict activities in pursuit of water [5,18,29]. Percentage of households reporting whether their crop and household water needs and crop water needs were met over the past ten years, last year, and if they thought they would be met next year.…”

Section: Independent Variables Used In the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the relationship between climate change, water insecurity, and human conflict is a much-debated topic [3][4][5][6][7]. The potential impacts of climate change on agriculture, water scarcity, and human security are especially worrisome for rain fed subsistence farmers [8][9][10][11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Farmer Perceptions of Conflict Related to Water in Zambia

Marcantonio

Attari

2018

Sustainability

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Abstract:The relationship between climate change, water scarcity, and conflict is still debated. Much of the existing work relating resource scarcity to conflict has involved regional-scale analysis linking instances of violent outbreaks to environmental conditions. But how do individual farmers in Africa define conflict? Do they perceive that conflict will change as a function of water scarcity, and, if so, how? Here, we address these questions by surveying farmers in southern Zambia in 2015, where we asked respondents to define conflict, assessed their perceptions of past and future conflict, as well as perceptions of rainfall and water availability. We find that the majority of our respondents (75%) think of conflict as misunderstandings or disagreements between people and that 91% of our sample has experienced past conflict, 70% expect to experience future conflict, and 58% expect to experience future physical violent conflict. When asked about the sources of conflict, respondents mainly mention land grabbing, crop damage by animals, and politics rather than water related issues. However, we find a significant relationship between perceptions of future rainfall decreasing and future physical violent conflict. These results imply that even though respondents do not think water scarcity is a direct source of conflict, the perception of decreased rain in the future is significantly related to the perception that future conflict and future physical violent conflict will occur.

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“…Burke et al (2010) concede that the relationship weakens over time, rejecting the other criticisms [26]. The debate has since resurfaced with Hsiang and Meng (2014) holding that there was agreement on an effect of temperature [27] with Buhaug (2014) disagreeing [28]. Commentators argued that disciplinary modeling traditions could explain some differences [29].…”

Section: The Climate-conflict Debate Pre-2014mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Violence: Insights from Political Science

Theisen

2017

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Purpose of Review The aim of this review is to understand the state of the art of research related to climate change and collectively organized violence from a broad political science perspective. Recent Findings An increasing share of quantitative studies find a link between weather anomalies and violence for some forms of violence, but the directions are not always consistent and the mechanisms are not satisfactorily understood. Nonnaturalist scholars note important reservations. Summary Important improvements have been made during the last few years, but much remains to conclude that climate change will increase the risk of violence. An increased focus on the political consequences of adaptation and mitigation is needed.

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Reconciling disagreement over climate–conflict results in Africa

Cited by 70 publications

References 11 publications

Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries

Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries

Farmer Perceptions of Conflict Related to Water in Zambia

Climate Change and Violence: Insights from Political Science

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