Recognition of Thermal Hot and Cold Spots in Urban Areas in Support of Mitigation Plans to Counteract Overheating: Application for Athens

Mavrakou, Thaleia; Polydoros, Anastasios; Cartalis, Constantinos; Santamouris, M.

doi:10.3390/cli6010016

Cited by 38 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Assessments of climate change on flood risk can be very uncertain for many reasons, such as climate model choice ( Deser et al, 2012 ), downscaling and bias-correction procedures, hydrological model choice and parameter estimation ( Donnely et al, 2017 ). Alfieri et al (2018) concluded that uncertainty from climate projections is the main driver of uncertainty when assessing future flood risk under global warming because the model error due to the flood component of the model is smaller than the differences due to alternative climate change scenarios. Another source of uncertainty arises when only a small number of years of flooding are simulated: many studies of future flood risk based on climate models output have been limited to simulations of no more than 100 years.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a recent study which considers natural correlation between events, Jongman et al (2014) found an almost five-fold increase in annual loss by 2050 for a 3 °C global warming, whereas Alfieri et al (2015) found for the same period an increase of 4 to 8 times for a 4 °C global warming scenario. More recently, Alfieri et al (2018) reported changes in annual loss for three warming levels (1.5, 2 and 3 °C) and three independent studies to be roughly in a range between 2 and 4 times that of the present. The latter three studies do not include the effect of future socio-economic changes on population, economy, and land use, so flood risk was estimated assuming present-day exposure and vulnerability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…They also found increases in high flows in Northern regions due to increasing precipitation, but with annual maxima decreasing due to less snowmelt. Alfieri et al (2018) compared three studies of flood hazard and risk projections based on ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. They found a substantial increase in flood risk over most of Central and Western Europe at all warming levels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of climate change on European winter and summer flood losses

Sassi

Nicótina

Pall

et al. 2019

Advances in Water Resources

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Climate change is expected to alter European floods and associated economic losses in various ways. Here we investigate the impact of precipitation change on European average winter and summer financial losses due to flooding under a 1.5 °C warming scenario (reflecting a projected climate in the year 2115 according to RCP2.6) and for a counterfactual current-climate scenario where the climate has evolved without anthropogenic influence (reflecting a climate corresponding to pre-industrial conditions). Climate scenarios were generated with the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) version 5. For each scenario, we derive a set of weights that when applied to the current climate's precipitation results in a climatology that approximates that of the scenario. We apply the weights to annual losses from a well-calibrated (to the current climate) flood loss model that spans 50,000 years and re-compute the average annual loss to assess the impact of precipitation changes induced by anthropogenic climate change. The method relies on a large stochastic set of physically based flood model simulations and allows quick assessment of potential loss changes due to change in precipitation based on two statistics, namely total precipitation, and total precipitation of very wet days (defined here as the total precipitation of days above the 95th percentile of daily precipitation). We compute the statistics with the raw CAM precipitation and bias-corrected precipitation. Our results show that for both raw and bias-corrected statistics i) average flood loss in Europe generally tend to increase in winter and decrease in summer for the future scenario, and consistent with that change we also show that ii) average flood losses have increased (decreased) for winter (summer) from pre-industrial conditions to the current day. The magnitude of the change varies among scenarios and statistics chosen.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of climate change on European winter and summer flood losses

Sassi

Nicótina

Pall

et al. 2019

Advances in Water Resources

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“…This index has been determined by Baker et al (2004), and after its inventors is called the R-B Index (or RBI). This index has been calculated with the following formula [1]:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the recent years, there have been a number of studies conducted on the influence of climate change on water resources (Pekarova et al, 2006;Stahl et al, 2010;Dobrovol'skii, 2018). In the literature on the subject, one may find publications regarding projections of future climate changes for the region of Europe (IPCC 2013; Alfieri et al, 2018). Climate predictions for Poland expect further warming and continuation of already observed changes in amounts of precipitation and precipitation's spatial and seasonal distribution (Szwed et al, 2010;Osuch et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Variability of Runoff of Vistula River in 1951-2015.

Kubiak-Wójcicka¹

2019

Air and Water Components of the Environment Conference

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This study presents the characteristics of the Vistula River runoff in the perspective of many years. Based on the daily values of Vistula flows for 9 selected hydrological stations located along the course of the river, analysis of the long-term variability of flows in hydrological years 1951-2015 was made. The work analyzes the variability of maximum, average and minimum annual flows. The highest annual flows occurred in 2010 and 1975, while the lowest in 1954, 1984 and 2012. Over the analyzed period, the difference between maximum and minimum flows has been reduced. The amplitude of annual flows demonstrates a clear downward trend. On the basis of the values of average annual flows, a hydrological classification was made, in which dry, normal and wet years were determined based on the coefficients k and sum (k-1). Normal years are characterized by average annual flows equal to or close to the average value over many years (the coefficient k is from 0.91 to 1.1). It was established that dry years predominate (k<0.9) over wet years (k>1.1). Depending on the hydrological stations, dry years were found from 22 to 29 times over the analyzed 65 years, and wet years from 15 to 23 times. Only in Tczew (the mouth of the Vistula River), both wet and dry years were found 22 times.

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