“…Once regular smoking patterns are established, however, prior smoking behavior becomes such a strong predictor of future smoking behavior (Selya, Dierker, Rose, Hedeker, & Mermelstein, 2012; Selya et al, 2013) that nicotine dependence becomes a weak or insignificant predictor. Early-emerging nicotine dependence assessed from novice smokers, then, may provide a special insight into one's initial sensitivity or susceptibility to nicotine dependence, while nicotine dependence assessed from more experienced smokers is likely to be conflated with the subsequent effects of smoking on nicotine dependence (Hu, Griesler, Wall, & Kandel, 2014). Put another way, nicotine dependence and smoking have a bi-directional relationship (Doubeni, Reed, & Difranza, 2010), and early-emerging nicotine dependence assessed from novices may more precisely measure one's susceptibility to future chronic smoking.…”