Recidivism rates in individuals receiving community sentences: A systematic review

Abstract

ObjectiveWe aimed to systematically review recidivism rates in individuals given community sentences internationally. We sought to explore sources of variation between these rates and how reporting practices may limit their comparability across jurisdictions. Finally, we aimed to adapt previously published guidelines on recidivism reporting to include community sentenced populations.MethodsWe searched MEDLINE, PsycINFO, SAGE and Google Scholar for reports and studies of recidivism rates using non-specific and targeted searches for the 20 countries with the largest prison populations worldwide. We identified 28 studies with data from 19 countries. Of the 20 countries with the largest prison populations, only 2 reported recidivism rates for individuals given community sentences.ResultsThe most commonly reported recidivism information between countries was for 2-year reconviction, which ranged widely from 14% to 43% in men, and 9% to 35% in women. Explanations for recidivism rate variations between countries include when the follow-up period started and whether technical violations were taken into account.ConclusionRecidivism rates in individuals receiving community sentences are typically lower in comparison to those reported in released prisoners, although these two populations differ in terms of their baseline characteristics. Direct comparisons of the recidivism rates in community sentenced cohorts across jurisdictions are currently not possible, but simple changes to existing reporting practices can facilitate these. We propose recommendations to improve reporting practices.

Towards more accurate classification of risk of arrest among offenders on community supervision: An application of machine learning versus logistic regression

“…Within 3 years, nearly 40% of former prisoners incurred a violation of parole or probation or an arrest for a new offence, and within 5 years, nearly half did (Durose & Antenangeli, 2021). Although recidivism prevalence estimates are particularly high among U.S. parolees/probationers, recidivism estimates are substantively comparable to studies of former prisoners selected from 20 nations who are now on community supervision (Yukhnenko et al, 2019). In diverse nations, including Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, between 20% and 40% of individuals serving community-based sentences were reconvicted of a new crime within 2 years.…”

Criminal recidivism rates globally: A 6-year systematic review update

“…This review is an update of three systematic reviews ( Fazel & Wolf, 2015 ; Yukhnenko, Sridhar, & Fazel, 2019 ; Yukhnenko, Wolf, et al, 2019 ). We searched SAGE, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, PsycARTICLES, and Web of Science bibliometric databases using search terms related to criminal recidivism.…”

“…Recidivism rates are routinely collected by most countries and reported by specific governmental agencies (see Federal Statistical Office, 2015 ; Ministry of Justice, 2023 ; SPAC, 2018 ). Recidivism is measured in different ways, and previous reviews have shown that the 2-year reconviction rate is most commonly reported outcome in individuals released from prisons ( Yukhnenko, Sridhar, & Fazel, 2019 ) and those completing community sentences ( Yukhnenko, Wolf, Blackwood, & Fazel, 2019 ).…”

Bringing the “Invisible Population” to Light: Justice for Incarcerated and Formerly Incarcerated Women

“…Lack of access to financial support can significantly impact women's ability to successfully navigate the reentry process and result in a higher likelihood of returning to crime as a means of survival. Although it can be tricky comparing international recidivism rates, because countries often use different terms to measure recidivism and varying lengths of time to re-offense, evidence suggests that 9-35% of women are reconvicted within one to two years (Yukhnenko et al, 2019). Overall, given that women face unique experiences pertaining to victimization, mental health, and substance abuse coupled with their role as primary care provider to their children and returning to impoverished neighborhoods post-release, many struggle to successfully navigate integration into the free world.…”