“Recessions lower (some) mortality rates: evidence from Germany”

Abstract

In his article with the provocative title "Are Recessions Good for Your Health?", Ruhm (2000) has found robust and consistent evidence that the total mortality rate, agespecific mortality rates as well as most specific mortality causes are pro-cyclical. His finding that high unemployment rates are associated with lower mortality and vice versa stands in stark contrast to Brenner's earlier work, who found the opposite effect, possibly after a time lag. Ruhm controls for state-specific effects in a panel of US states over the period 1972 to 1991, whereas Brenner's work is based on time-series analysis.Extending and improving upon Ruhm's original analysis, we analyse the effect of state unemployment and economic growth rates on mortality in the states of Germany over the period 1980 to 2000, both in a static and a dynamic econometric model. Controlling for state-specific effects, we find evidence that aggregate mortality rates for all age groups taken together as well as most specific age groups are lower in recessions. The same is true for mortality from cardiovascular diseases, pneumonia and influenza, motor vehicle accidents and suicides, but not necessarily for other specific mortality causes. In particular, there never is a statistically significant effect on homicides, other external effects and malignant neoplasms. There are also few differences apparent between the effect on male and female mortality. If we do not control for state-specific effects, then we often arrive at the opposite result with higher unemployment being associated with higher mortality. This suggests that a failure to control for time-invariant state-specific effects leads to omitted variable bias, which would erroneously suggest that mortality rates move counter-cyclically. Overall, we can confirm Ruhm's main finding for 2 another country: recessions lower some, but not all, mortality rates in the case of Germany.

Stochastic Mortality, Macroeconomic Risks, and Life Insurer Solvency

“…A similar pattern was observed for mortality rates in the United States, Spain, and Japan (Tapia Granados, 2005a, 2005b, for Sweden (Tapia Granados and Ionides, 2008), and for 23 OECD countries over the 1960-1997 period (Gerdtham and Ruhm, 2006). Neumayer (2004) and Hanewald (2008) also corroborate Ruhm's results using German data for 1980-2000 and 1956-2004, respectively. Further evidence for France, Japan, and the United States is provided by Reichmuth and Sarferaz (2008).…”

A Review of Health Consequences of Recessions Internationally and a Synthesis of the US Response during the Great Recession

“…In a series of macro-level studies, Ruhm and others have found a consistent but counterintuitive result that mortality generally declines during economic contractions. 4,[12][13][14][15][16][17][18] These findings have been found across the OECD countries, 4,16 in the US [12][13][14][15] and even during the Great Depression.…”

“…However, from the perspective of public health agencies there appear to be vulnerable populations that are often "hidden" from public health surveillance. 4 For example, while average drinking rates have typically declined during the recession (presumably as most people can afford less alcohol), a subpopulation has increased binging; this population appears to disproportionately include those at risk for unemployment. 5 Hence, crude mortality rate declines may mask hidden public health problems.…”

The impact of fiscal austerity on suicide: On the empirics of a modern Greek tragedy

“…Several studies have found evidence of age and/or gender dependent effects of socio-economic variables on suicide rates (see, for instance, Pitman et al, 2012;Andrés, 2005;Neumayer, 2004;Markowitz et al, 2003;Jungeilges and Kirchgassner, 2002, among others). Thus, we now examine whether the effects of fiscal austerity (among other socio-economic variables) on suicide rates are also age and/or gender specific.…”