Recent update on COVID-19 in India: Is locking down the country enough?

Abstract

Background: India is the second-largest population in the world, and it is not well equipped, hitherto, in the scenario of the global pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 could impart a devastating impact on the Indian population. Only way to respond against this critical condition is by practicing large-scale social distancing. India lock down for 21 days, however, till 7 April 2020, SARS-CoV-2 positive cases were growing exponentially, which raises the concerns if the number of reported and actual cases are similar. Methods: We use Lasso Regression withand Polynomial features of degree 2 to predict the growth factor. Also, we predicted Logistic curve using the Prophet Python. Further, using the growth rate to logistic, and carrying capacity is 20000 allowed us to calculate the maximum cases and new cases per day. Results:We found the predicted growth factor with a standard deviation of 0.3443 for the upcoming days. When the growth factor becomes 1.0, which is known as Inflection point, it will be safe to state that the rate is no longer exponential. The estimated time to reach the inflection point is between 15-20 April. At that time, the estimated number of total positive cases will be over 12500, if lockdown remains continue. Conclusions:Our analysis suggests that there is an urgent need to take action to extend the period of lockdown and allocate enough resources, including personnel, beds, and intensive care facilities, to manage the situation in the next few days and weeks. Otherwise, the outbreak in India can reach the level of the USA or Italy or could be worse than these countries within a few days or weeks, given the size of the population and lack of resources.

Promising role of defensins peptides as therapeutics to combat against viral infection

“…The virus attacks the respiratory tract via ciliated epithelial cells using angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) & TMPRSS2 receptors [ 4 ]. The SARS-CoV-2 expanding pandemic has become globally challenging because of the high rate of mutations in its positive-stranded RNA genome and evolved spike proteins [ 5 ]. However, no specific drugs or treatment availability aggravated the situation [ 6 , 7 ]; Han et al, 2020; [ 8 , 9 ].…”

Regression Analysis of COVID-19 Spread in India and its Different States

“…Although, several studies in the context of India have been reported recently by many researchers [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15] to understand and analyze the dynamics of COVID-19 spread, but there are very limited studies on state wise analysis [16][17][18] of the outbreak. Looking at the diversity in population, population density and geographical conditions, the study of India as a whole may not provide actual status of the epidemic, therefore, each states of India which has huge populations as compared to the other part of world, need to analyze separately for the spread of coronavirus.…”

Epidemiological Models of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) to Control the Transmission Based on Current Evidence: A Systematic Review

“…We locate that most existing models of COVID-19 are ordinarily founded on plague dynamic models instead of the factual models or AI. In this study, various authors have included the lockdown as a part in their model [8,20,24,37,52,74,83,84,93]. They have shown that the susceptibility rate decreases due to the containment of people and providing help in maintaining social-distancing.…”

“…Currently, the numbers have crossed 140,000. Virk J. K. et al [74] used lasso regression and logistic curve to predict the maximum cases and new cases per day. The predictions given by the model don't match real data.…”