Recent trends in climate variability at the local scale using 40 years of observations: the case of the Paris region of France

Abstract

Abstract. For several years, global warming has been unequivocal, leading to climate change at global, regional and local scales. A good understanding of climate characteristics and local variability is important for adaptation and response. Indeed, the contribution of local processes and their understanding in the context of warming are still very little studied and poorly represented in climate models. Improving the knowledge of surface–atmosphere feedback effects at local scales is therefore important for future projections. Using observed data in the Paris region from 1979 to 2017, this study characterizes the changes observed over the last 40 years for six climatic parameters (e.g. mean, maximum and minimum air temperature at 2 m, 2 m relative and specific humidities and precipitation) at the annual and seasonal scales and in summer, regardless of large-scale circulation, with an attribution of which part of the change is linked to large-scale circulation or thermodynamic. The results show that some trends differ from the ones observed at the regional or global scale. Indeed, in the Paris region, the maximum temperature increases faster than does the minimum temperature. The most significant trends are observed in spring and in summer, with a strong increase in temperature and a very strong decrease in relative humidity, while specific humidity and precipitation show no significant trends. The summer trends can be explained more precisely using large-scale circulation, especially regarding the evolution of the precipitation and specific humidity. The analysis indicates the important role of surface–atmosphere feedback in local variability and that this feedback is amplified or inhibited in a context of global warming, especially in an urban environment.

Agricultural Yield Responses to Climate Variabilities in West Africa: A Food Supply and Demand Analysis

“…To detect the presence of an upward or downward trend in the time series, we applied the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. The method does not make any assumptions about the data distribution and the rank-based measure is not influenced by outliers [52]. The trend statistic (S) is derived as follows [53]:…”

Assessment of the impact of climate change on crop production in Ukraine: Adaptation mechanisms for mitigating the consequences

“…The importance of understanding the role of the processes that influence weather and climate change was also explored by J. Ringard et al (2022). They emphasised the importance of understanding the physical processes behind changes in the environment, especially during the summer season, and discussed the relevance of studying them to find more effective methods to counteract them.…”

Reliability Predictors for Solar Irradiance Satellite-Based Forecast

“…For the northern Atlantic area, four situations per season have been identified as distinct weather regimes [55,56]. The impacts of each weather regime on the meteorological situation in Paris area have been studied by [28,57], who investigated the influence of these same weather regimes on solar and wind energy production.…”

“…Performance has been assessed using ground measurements at the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) site of Palaiseau (France) [26] on the Site Instrumental de Recherche par Télédétection Atmosphérique (SIRTA) atmospheric observatory [27] and compared with a persistence algorithm as well as with GHI outputs of the Météo-France Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (ARPEGE) NWP model. Secondly, score results have been analyzed according to the different weather regimes occurring in the northern Atlantic and known to impact the meteorological situation over the Paris area [28], as well as surrounding cloud patterns observed from SEVIRI images. In this paper, Section 2 describes our forecast algorithm, the data used and the assessment methodology.…”

“…Van Der Wiel et al [57] focused on winter situations, whereas [28] studied summer situations only. From these two works we deduced the expected consequences on the cloud cover evolution over the Paris area.…”