Recent trend in temperature evolution in Spanish mainland (1951–2010): from warming to hiatus

Abstract

ABSTRACT:The most recent debate on global warming focuses on the hiatus in global temperature, for which several explanations have been proposed. On the other hand, spatial variability and nonlinearity in temperature evolution has been recognized as a key point in global change analyses.In this study, we analyse the evolution of the warming rate in the Spanish mainland using the MOTEDAS data set for the last 60 years . Our special emphasis is on the last decades to detect and identify a possible hiatus, and to determine the effects of daytime (T max ) and night-time (T min ) records at annual and seasonal scale on the hiatus. Moving windows running trend analyses were applied to calculate temperature trend and significance for any temporal window from the beginning to the end of the series, ranging from 20 years to the whole series length (60 years)The results suggest that the warming rate in the Spanish mainland reached a maximum between 1970 and 1990, followed by a decrease in intensity in both T max and T min until the present. Furthermore, the decrease in the warming rate in T max has been higher than in T min for the last three decades; therefore, recent annual warming rates appears to depend more on T min than on T max . Significant trends disappear from the middle of the 1980s at any temporal window length in both T max and T min at annual and seasonal scales except in spring T min .Some differences among seasons are evident and, during the last few decades, the highest rates of warming are found in spring and summer, with T max and T min behaving in different ways. This study highlights how the warming rate is highly dependent on the length of the period analysed.

Warming across decades and deciles: minimum and maximum daily temperatures in China, 1955–2014

“…Thus, a volcanic eruption can cause significant increases in the atmospheric aerosol loading and decrease the solar radiation reaching the surface. Other regional studies have also detected short‐term cooling (Gonzalez‐Hidalgo et al ., , in Spain) and aerosol optical thickness maxima (Posyniak et al ., , in Poland) associated with these eruptions in 1984 and 1992. Aerosol loading caused by major volcanic eruptions may contribute to short‐term dips in maximum and minimum temperatures, but they cannot be expected to exert a significant influence on the continuation of global warming (Foster and Rahmstorf, ).…”

A moving windows visual approach to analysing spatial variation in temperature trends on the Spanish mainland 1951–2010

“…() had also related the temperatures with the NAO atmospheric pattern, considering that the anomalous anticyclone circulation could be one of the main drivers of cloud cover and radiation. Finally, more recently we have discussed the global explanation of hiatus by using the national series of MOTEDAS, and introducing the effects of variation on the water vapour transfer from the Atlantic Ocean and its relationship with clouds, solar radiation, and eventually also local factors (González‐Hidalgo et al, ). However, all these articles approached understanding trends through a fixed period and avoiding spatial variations in the time of trends, as described in this article.…”

“…Among many recent articles, Mauget and Cordero () described the optimal ranking regime method to identify intra‐decadal to multi‐decadal regimes in US climate division temperature data from 1896 to 2012; Gil‐Alana () applied linear and segmented trends in sea surface temperature data analyses using fractional integration, allowing long memory behaviour in the de‐trended series; Anderson and Kostinski () examined the evolving variability of monthly mean temperatures and their dependence on the beginning and final year by using an index based on record‐breaking statistics; Marotzke and Forster () analysed simulations and observations of global mean surface temperature from 1900 to 2012, using a multiple regression approach in all possible 15‐ and 62‐year trends, concluding that the differences between simulated and observed trends were dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcing used to drive models over the longer timescale. Last but not least, several articles have tackled the problem of presenting all the possible temporal windows in triangular diagrams, including the significance, and the signal or rate of the trends, avoiding a priori selection of any period (Brunetti et al, ; González‐Hidalgo et al, , ; Liebmann et al, ; Servain et al, ).…”

The Medieval Climate Anomaly in the Mediterranean Region

“…Colder climate prevailed in the early 20th century and in the 1970s/1980s (Domroes & El‐Tantawi, ; Erlat & Türkeş, ; Espírito Santo et al, ; Kadioğlu, ; Mamara et al, ; Tecer & Cerit, ). Rapid warming of the late 20th century has meanwhile slowed down in the 21st century when a high warming plateau was reached (Gonzalez‐Hidalgo et al, ). Timing of the Mediterranean warm and cold phases coincides well with the positive (AMO+) and negative (AMO−) phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), respectively (Marullo et al, ; Macias et al, ; Figure ).…”