Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather

Joe, Paul; Crozier, C.L.; Donaldson, Norman; Etkin, Dave; Brun, Erik; Clodman, Steve; Abraham, Jim; Siok, Stan; Biron, H.-P.; Leduc, Mike; Chadwick, Phil; Knott, Steve; Archibald, Jamie; Vickers, G. G.; Blackwell, Steve; Drouillard, Rick; Whitman, Alan M.; Brooks, Harold E.; Kouwen, N.; Verret, Richard; Fournier, Gilles; Kochtubajda, Bohdan

doi:10.1080/07055900.1995.9649534

Cited by 12 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…Most of our early knowledge has been derived from studies of a limited number of very large tornadoes, numerical modelling studies and empirical studies (Bluestein and Golden, 1993;Church et al, 1993;Grazulis, 1993). The understanding of small downburst winds that previously confounded the interpretation of damage patterns (Fujita, 1981;Fujita and Smith, 1993) and recent research field programmes and operational experience have added to our understanding in that a larger variety of tornadoes have been studied and the mechanism for their formation is not as clear as it was once thought (Wilson, 1986;Burgess et al, 1993;Joe et al, 1994;Rasmussen et al, 1994;Bluestein et al, 1998).…”

Section: Tornado Formation and Conditions That Results In Tornadoesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tornado climatology of Canada revisited: tornado activity during different phases of ENSO

Etkin¹,

Brun²,

Shabbar³

et al. 2001

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Tornadoes are a significant hazard in some parts of Canada, particularly in the southern Prairie provinces and southwestern Ontario, though they are not as common as in some parts of the US. Since the early 1980s, the regional weather offices in Canada have been recording tornado event information on a routine basis, and thus data exists that can be used to update older analyses of tornado frequencies. On average, about 60 tornadoes are reported each year, though many doubtless occur that are not observed or recorded in the Environment Canada records. An analysis of tornado frequencies with El Niñ o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events suggest that the cooler La Niñ a events tend to suppress tornadic activity, while El Niñ o events tend to enhance it (though there are exceptions to this trend).

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Section: Tornado Formation and Conditions That Results In Tornadoesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tornado climatology of Canada revisited: tornado activity during different phases of ENSO

Etkin¹,

Brun²,

Shabbar³

et al. 2001

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

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“…Modern tools for operational severe storm forecasting at MSC include the Unified Radar Processor (known internationally as the Canadian Radar Decision Support system), which comprises radar quality control and multi-radar integration software, a suite of severe weather algorithms including storm-tracking, storm severity ranking, and storm-centric multi-product displays (see Fig. 10; Joe et al, 1995Joe et al, , 2004. Radar data, satellite imagery, surface and upper-air observations, as well as NWP, are viewed using the NinJo operational workstation (Joe et al, 2005;Koppert et al, 2004).…”

Section: Operational Severe Storms Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, Spinney (2019) examined the social science aspects of risk management and decision making by severe weather forecasters at an MSC office. Lastly, severe weather alerts in Canada have historically been issued for predefined warning regions using established thresholds for wind gust speed, hail size, and rainfall rate and accumulation (Joe et al, 1995). However, recent research has been undertaken on the use of probabilistic alerts using geo-referenced objects (see Joe et al, 2018;Sills, 2009) to better combine forecaster expertise with machine automation, and so-called MetObject-based alerting is planned for implementation at the MSC starting in 2019.…”

Section: Operational Severe Storms Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

From Pioneers to Practitioners: A Short History of Severe Thunderstorm Research and Forecasting in Canada

Sills

Joe

2019

Atmosphere-Ocean

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The science of understanding severe thunderstorms and developing techniques for their prediction is relatively young, with most fundamental research having been carried out only during the last 75 years. Though it is not widely known, Canada has played an important role in such research and development, and some of Canada's atmospheric scientists have been pioneers globally in a number of areas. This brief review attempts to describe the full breadth of the Canadian contribution, with sections dedicated to radar meteorology, field studies, laboratory work, and forecasting. Key areas requiring further investment in order to improve our understanding and predictive skill are also identified.RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] La science nous faisant comprendre les orages violents et la création de techniques de prévision connexes sont relativement récentes, la majeure partie des recherches fondamentales n'ayant été effectuée que pendant les 75 dernières années. Fait peu connu, le Canada a joué un grand rôle dans la recherche et le développement de cette science, et certains de ses spécialistes de l'atmosphère ont fait figure de pionniers dans nombre de domaines et au-delà de nos frontières. Cet article décrit brièvement l'ampleur de la contribution canadienne, y compris en ce qui concerne la météorologie radar, les études sur le terrain, les travaux en laboratoire et les prévisions. Il aborde en outre les thèmes stratégiques qui nécessitent une attention accrue afin d'améliorer notre compréhension et nos capacités de prévision.

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“…Approximately 25% of these decaying tropical vortices undergo interactions with synoptic-scale features that lead to the reintensification of the storm as an extratropical system (e.g., DiMego and Bosart 1982;Klein et al 2000;Hart and Evans 2001). These extratropical transitions (ETs) are common in the Canadian Maritime provinces, where an average of 2-3 occur each year (Joe et al 1995). Less frequently, however, the TC's structure and intensity may persist despite its passage over cooler SSTs as a result of either boundary layer decoupling (Browning et al 1998) or sufficient translation speed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hurricane Juan (2003). Part II: Forecasting and Numerical Simulation

McTaggart‐Cowan

Bosart

Gyakum

et al. 2006

Monthly Weather Review

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The landfall of Hurricane Juan (September 2003) in the Canadian Maritimes represents an ideal case in which to study the performance of operational forecasting of an intense, predominantly tropical feature entering the midlatitudes. A hybrid cyclone during its genesis phase, Juan underwent a tropical transition as it drifted slowly northward 1500 km from the east coast of the United States. Shortly after reaching its peak intensity as a category-2 hurricane, the storm accelerated rapidly northward and made landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, with maximum sustained winds of 44 m s Ϫ1 . Although the forecasts and warnings produced by the U.S. National Hurricane Center and the Canadian Hurricane Centre were of high quality throughout Hurricane Juan's life cycle, guidance from numerical weather prediction models became unreliable as the storm accelerated toward the coast. The short-range, near-surface forecasts from eight operational models during the crucial prelandfall portion of Juan's track are investigated in this study. Despite continued improvements to operational numerical forecasting systems, it is shown that those systems not employing advanced tropical vortex initialization techniques were unable to provide forecasters with credible near-surface guidance in this case. A pair of regional forecasts, one successful and one from the failed model set, are compared in detail. Spurious asymmetries in the initial vortex of the deficient model are shown to hamper structural predictions and to cause nonnegligible track perturbations from the trajectory implied by the well-described deep-layer mean flow. The Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community model is rerun with an improved representation of the hurricane's vortex in the initial state. The hindcast produced following the tropical cyclone initialization contains reduced track, structure, and intensity errors compared with those generated by the model in real time. The enhanced initial intensity produces a direct improvement in the forecast storm strength throughout the period, and the symmetrization of the vortex eliminates the interactions that plague the operational system. The southeastward relocation of the implanted vortex to Juan's observed location eliminates a significant northwestward track bias under the influence of a broad area of southerly steering flow. The study concludes that the initialization of Hurricane Juan's structure and position adds value to numerical guidance even as the storm accelerates poleward at a latitude where the implantation of a quasi-symmetric vortex may not be generally valid.

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Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather

Abstract: Summer severe weather (SSW)

Cited by 12 publications

References 66 publications

Tornado climatology of Canada revisited: tornado activity during different phases of ENSO

Tornado climatology of Canada revisited: tornado activity during different phases of ENSO

From Pioneers to Practitioners: A Short History of Severe Thunderstorm Research and Forecasting in Canada

Hurricane Juan (2003). Part II: Forecasting and Numerical Simulation

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