Recent precipitation trends, flash floods and landslides in southern Brazil

Ávila, Álvaro; Justino, Flávio; Wilson, Aaron B.; Bromwich, David H.; Amorim, Marcelo Cid de

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114029

Cited by 113 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…The Csa type is also original because it represents in the south of the country a frequent ACT (about 3% of all) but which disappears systematically on average for the benefit of the Cfa type! This table confirms the trend of tropical heat extension towards southern Brazil with a decrease in the frequency of all C types; only the Cfa type escapes the rule but the increase of this ACT is mainly due to the decrease of cool climates (Cfb); the lower frequency of Csa types associated with increased rainfall in southern Brazil observed by many authors (Teixeira and Satyamurty, ; Ávila et al ., ; Ely and Dubreuil, ) can also explain it.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 90%

Climate change evidence in Brazil from Köppen's climate annual types frequency

Dubreuil

Fante

Planchon

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This article proposes to use the Köppen classification to evidence climate change in Brazil. To do so, the average monthly temperature and precipitation data were computed for a set of 208 stations, representative of the climatic diversity of Brazil for the period from 1964 to 2015. The originality of our approach is not only to look at the shift between the averages of two references periods but also to observe how each year can be classified using Köppen's classification; thus, we defined “annual climate types” (ACT) and established the frequency of ACTs for each station and each period of 26 years: 1964–1989 and 1990–2015. The statistical and cartographic treatment of this information makes it possible to define the limits of the climates of Brazil and look at its evolution showing the diversity of regional situations in Brazil. The results show that 35 stations (17%) changed from the average Köppen's type, with significant regression of wet tropical types (Af and Am) and temperate types (C). On the other hand, the tropical (Aw), arid and semi‐arid (B) types progress between the two periods showing significant modifications of the climatic limits in Brazil: extension of aridity in the northeast of Brazil and increasing extinction of tropical types upon temperate climates in the south of the country and upon rainy types in the south of the Amazon. These results are consistent with other studies and illustrate the potential for climate change and variability monitoring using a simple classification method.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 90%

Climate change evidence in Brazil from Köppen's climate annual types frequency

Dubreuil

Fante

Planchon

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Diversos estudos mostram que as condições das temperaturas da superfície do mar (TSM) sobre os oceanos tropicais influenciam o regime de chuvas do Nordeste, do Sul/Sudeste do Brasil e da Amazônia e que mudanças na frequência e intensidade desses eventos estão diretamente relacionados à essas mudanças observadas nos diferentes índices de precipitação utilizadas nesse estudo (HAYLOCK et al, 2006;MARENGO E VALVERDE, 2007;VALVERDE e MARENGO, 2014;SALVIANO et al 2016;SALGUEIRO et al, 2016;PENEREIRO E MESCHIATTI, 2017). Por exemplo, o aumento das condições mais úmidas e extremas da precipitação tanto no Sul com em parte do Sudeste e Centro-Oeste no Brasil foram associados à mudanças de intensidade de eventos El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS) que por sua vez estão relacionados à modulação deste fenômeno com a oscilação decadal do pacífico (BARROS et al, 2008;CAVALCANTI E AMBRIZZI, 2009;ÁVILA et al, 2016), já no Nordeste a diminuição da precipitação também vem sendo associada a mudanças nos padrões de ocorrência da ENOS e também de alterações no padrão de anomalias da TSM sobre o oceano atlântico tropical, comumente chamado de padrão de dipolo do atlântico (HAYLOCK et al, 2006;SANTOS e BRITO, 2007;KAYANO e CAPISTRANO, 2013;SALGUEIRO et al, 2016). É importante destacar que as mudanças climáticas globais antropogênicas vêm sendo apontado como o principal indutor dessas mudanças nos padrões de variabilidade desses indicadores climáticos (IPCC, 2013;MARENGO et al 2018).…”

Section: Resultsunclassified

Influência Da Correlação Temporal E Da Multiplicidade De Testes Na Detecção De Tendências De Índices De Chuva No Território Brasileiro

Souza

Amorim²,

Reis

2020

ABClima

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Dados diários de precipitação registrados em 2481 estações pluviométricas, com pelo menos 30 anos e espalhadas pelo território brasileiro, foram empregados para ilustrar como a presença de correlação temporal nas séries e o método empregado no controle do erro tipo 1, quando se realiza um conjunto de testes de hipóteses de forma simultânea numa região (multiplicidade), afetam os resultados de detecção de tendência monotônica. Apesar de conhecidos, esses fatores são frequentemente negligenciados em estudos dessa natureza, especialmente no Brasil. O objetivo é chamar a atenção da comunidade científica para esses fatores. Para lidar com a correlação temporal foram empregados os métodos Pre-Whitening e Trend-Free Pre-Whitening, enquanto que para a questão da multiplicidade, foi utilizado o controle baseado no False Discovery Rate (FDR). Os resultados mostraram que tanto a correlação temporal, quanto a questão da multiplicidade, se não forem consideradas na análise de detecção, podem distorcer de forma considerável o número de resultados identificados com presença de tendência, levando a uma interpretação equivocada da situação. Negligenciar esses fatores resulta sempre numa superestimativa do número de estações com tendência devido ao número elevado de falsas detecções, o que pode gerar decisões equivocadas na alocação de investimentos em estratégias de adaptação.

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“…The weakest increase of 1.1% occurs in MED. Moreover, since the high values of RX5day increase the risk of the occurrence of flash floods and landslides (Ávila et al ., ), it is implied that the natural and human systems would experience more landslides and flash floods when the global mean temperature increase exceeds 4 °C. Generally, local changes in RX5day fall within the level of background noise, excluding parts of the polar regions and the Tropics.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme temperature and precipitation changes associated with four degree of global warming above pre‐industrial levels

Wang

Jiang

Lang

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In 2012, the World Bank released a report and stated that a 4 C increase in global temperature relative to the pre-industrial levels would be devastating. However, there is a lack of scientific literature on the changes in climate associated with a 4 C temperature increase. Based on the daily temperature and precipitation data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we project the global terrestrial changes in the extreme values of temperature and precipitation in association with a warming of 4 C above the pre-industrial levels using the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The results indicated that cold extremes will decrease and warm extremes will increase. More remarkable signals in temperature extremes based on daily minimum temperature are expected, and local changes in temperature extremes generally extend beyond the natural internal variability. Significant signals in the frequency of temperature extremes appear in low latitudes, while the temperature changes of the coldest and hottest days are great in northern high latitudes. Large signal-to-noise ratios for warm extremes mainly occur in low latitudes, while those of cold extremes are not uniformly distributed. More intense and frequent heavy precipitation is also projected. Signals in high-precipitation extremes are prominent in high latitudes and usually exceed the local natural internal variability. Changes in extreme dry events are high in the extratropics and generally lie within the background noise. Relative to the 1.5 C global warming scenario, there would be more violent temperature and precipitation extremes with the 4 C warming level, and these extremes would pose more threats to natural and human systems. Additionally, small inter-model uncertainty occurs in the regions with remarkable signals for high precipitation-related extremes and cold days and nights, while the opposite trend is seen for extreme dry events and other temperature extremes.

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Recent precipitation trends, flash floods and landslides in southern Brazil

Cited by 113 publications

References 71 publications

Climate change evidence in Brazil from Köppen's climate annual types frequency

Climate change evidence in Brazil from Köppen's climate annual types frequency

Influência Da Correlação Temporal E Da Multiplicidade De Testes Na Detecção De Tendências De Índices De Chuva No Território Brasileiro

Extreme temperature and precipitation changes associated with four degree of global warming above pre‐industrial levels

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