Recent Developments in Some Long-Term Drought Drivers

Abstract

The droughts that hit North and North Western Europe in 2018 and 2019 served as a wake-up call that temperate regions are also affected by these kinds of slow progressing or creeping disasters. Long-term drivers, such as land-use changes, may have exacerbated the impacts of these meteorological droughts. These changes, which are spread over a long time span, may even be difficult to perceive for an individual, but make a big difference in how these rare weather events impact a region. In this paper, we introduce three long-term drivers: forest fires in Europe, global urbanisation, and global deforestation. We attempt to provide a first assessment of their trends, mainly using statistics derived from satellite imagery published in recent literature. Due to the complexity of drought impacts, and the scarcity of quantitative impact data, the relationship between drought impact and these three processes for land use change is difficult to quantify; however, hence we present a survey of the recent trends in these land use change processes and the possible mechanics by which they affect drought impacts. Based on this survey we can conclude that the extent and the number of wildfires have increased markedly in Europe since 2010. Deforestation is still occurring in the tropics, with a loss of 12% in the last 30 years but has halted in the northern regions. Urbanisation has more than doubled in the same time span in the tropics and subtropics, mostly at the expense of forests, while in Europe urbanisation took place mainly in the northern part of the continent. We can conclude that none of these implicit drought drivers followed a favourable trend in the last 30 years. With consistent and worldwide monitoring, for example, by using satellite imagery, we can regularly inform the scientific community on the trends in these drought impact affecting processes, thus helping decision makers to understand how far we have progressed in making the world resilient to drought impacts.

A temporal analysis of the consequences of the drought regime on the water footprint of agriculture in the Guadalupe Valley, Mexico

“…Furthermore, the combination of climate change, climate variability, and inefficient water usage 11 , along with irrational consumption habits 12 , intensified agriculture, and changes in land use 13 , have significantly impacted the load capacity of water resources and their security. This has led to a severe water crisis in arid areas 14 . As a result, conflicts related to socio-environmental issues have become more severe in various regions, hindering the achievement of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).…”

“…However, it is not only about the amount of water that is limited by climatic variables or overexploitation of water sources, but also about the repercussions in geographical and temporal dimensions that influence the hydro-social cycle 17 . As agriculture is one of the main productive activities globally, extreme droughts have had an impact on the loss of agricultural land, estimated at approximately 21 t −1 ha −1 average, which is up to 16 times higher than the weathering process of rocks 14 .…”

Consequences of drought regimes on the water footprint of agricultural production. Temporal analysis of the Guadalupe Valley, Mexico.

“…However, it is not only about the amount of water that is limited by climatic variables or overexploitation of water sources, but also about the repercussions in geographical and temporal dimensions that in uence the hydro-social cycle 16 . As agriculture is one of the main productive activities globally, extreme droughts have had an impact on the loss of agricultural land, estimated at approximately 21 ton/ha average, which is up to 16 times higher than the weathering process of rocks 14 .…”

“…In conjunction with the above, variability and climate change, combined with ine cient water use 11 , irrational consumption habits 12 , progressive intensi cation of agriculture, and changes in land use 13 , have signi cantly affected the load capacity of water resources and their security, triggering a severe water crisis 14 . For this reason, socio-environmental con icts have deepened in the territories, making it di cult to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations by 2030 15 .…”

FIND: A Synthetic weather generator to control drought Frequency, Intensity, and Duration

“…For example, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns and cyclic climate phenomena such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can lead to longer and more intense droughts (Singh et al, 2022). Land use change and deforestation can contribute to faster and more intense droughts (de Jager et al, 2022), while local evapotranspiration increase may drive more frequent and intense droughts (Aadhar and Mishra, 2020). Second, changes in certain drought properties may yield disproportionate effects on a water system.…”