Recent developments in population projection methodology: a review

Abstract

In this paper we survey five streams of research that have made important contributions to population projection methodology over the last decade. These are: (i) the evaluation of population forecasts; (ii) probabilistic methods; (iii) experiments in the projection of migration; (iv) projecting dimensions additional to age, sex and region; and (v) the use of scenarios for ‘what if?’ analyses and understanding population dynamics. Key developments in these areas are discussed, and a number of opportunities for further research are identified. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Population Projections for Sparsely Populated Areas: Reconciling “Error” and Context

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National and subnational projections of elderly living arrangements: An application of the net transition probability macrosimulation model

“…For an overview of each method see Wilson and Rees (2005) and McDonald et al (2006). As noted by McDonald (2001), Methodological sophistication and elegance increases as the model shifts through these approaches from propensity models to dynamic microsimulation.…”

The use of a new indirect method to estimate ethnic-group fertility rates for subnational projections for England

“…A range of methods exist for projecting populations (Wilson and Rees 2005;Booth 2006), the most common of which is the cohort-component method. In this method, age-specific fertility, mortality, and migration rates are applied to an area's base population to project the population in the future.…”