Recent changes in climate extremes in the Caribbean region

Peterson, Thomas C.; Taylor, Michael A.; Demeritte, Rodger; Duncombe, Donna L.; Burton, Selvin; Thompson, Francisca; Porter, Avalon O.; Mercedes, Mejia; Villegas, Elba; Fils, Rony Semexant; Tank, A. M. G. Klein; Martis, Albert; Warner, Robert R.; Joyette, Antonio; Mills, Willis; Alexander, Lisa V.; Gleason, B.

doi:10.1029/2002jd002251

Cited by 253 publications

(213 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Precipitation also matches the global average changes (Frich et al, 2002;Peterson et al, 2002;IPCC, 2007). Precipitation in the Caribbean is dominated by variability on annual and decadal scales.…”

Section: Observed Climatic Changes In the Caribbeanmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Historical temperature trends for the Caribbean have been shown to match global change (Frich et al, 2002;Peterson et al, 2002;IPCC, 2007). The intra-annual extreme range has been decreasing slightly although the trend is not significant .…”

Section: Observed Climatic Changes In the Caribbeanmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Maximum temperature is increasing with the trend significant at the 1% level. Peterson et al (2002) relate this to warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs), though local SSTs only account for 25% of variance. Singh (1997) shows increased maximum temperatures for stations in Trinidad (1-1.2 ºC), San Juan (2.3 ºC) and Guadeloupe (1.3 ºC).…”

Section: Observed Climatic Changes In the Caribbeanmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean

Karmalkar¹,

Taylor²,

Campbell³

et al. 2013

Atmósfera

102

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RESUMENLos cambios climáticos observados y proyectados tienen implicaciones socioeconómicas importantes para las islas del Caribe. El objetivo de este artículo es presentar información esencial sobre el cambio climá-tico -basada en estudios previos, observaciones disponibles y simulaciones de modelos climáticos-a escalas espaciales relevantes para las islas caribeñas. Se utilizan datos del modelo general de circulación (GCM) incluidos en el Proyecto de Comparación de Modelos Acoplados fase 3 (CMIP3), así como del modelo climático regional (RCM) del Centro Hadley del Reino Unido, para aportar tanto información actual como información basada en proyecciones sobre precipitaciones y temperatura en estados insulares específicos. Se utilizan observaciones reticuladas de estaciones y datos satelitales para estudiar el clima del siglo XX y evaluar el desempeño de los modelos climáticos. Con un enfoque centrado en la precipitación, también se analizan factores como la temperatura superficial del mar, la presión al nivel del mar y los vientos que influyen en las variaciones estacionales de la precipitación. La media del ensamble del CMIP3 y el RCM captan satisfactoriamente las peculiaridades de la circulación atmosférica de gran escala en la región, pero no así el ciclo estacional bimodal característico de la precipitación. La aridez en épocas de lluvias prevista en escenarios de cambio climático en la región se ha abordado en estudios previos, pero la magnitud de la variación es muy incierta en las simulaciones tanto del GCM como del RCM. La disminución proyectada es mayor al inicio de la temporada de lluvias y suprime la sequía del medio verano en el Caribe occidental. Las simulaciones del RCM muestran avances respecto del GCM, sobre todo por sus mejores representaciones de la extensión territorial, pero su desempeño depende en gran medida de la conducción del GCM. El presente estudio destaca la necesidad de contar con observaciones de alta resolución y comparar simulaciones de modelos climáticos para entender a fondo el cambio climático y su impacto en las pequeñas islas del Caribe. ABSTRACTObserved and projected changes in climate have serious socio-economic implications for the Caribbean islands. This article attempts to present basic climate change information-based on previous studies, available observations and climate model simulations-at spatial scales relevant for islands in the Caribbean. We use the General Circulation Model (GCM) data included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and the UK Hadley Centre regional climate model (RCM) data to provide both present-day and scenario-based future information on precipitation and temperature for individual island states. Gridded station observations and satellite data are used to study 20th century climate and to assess the performance of climate models. With main focus on precipitation, we also discuss factors such as sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and winds that affect seasonal variations in precipitation. The CMIP3 ensemble me...

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Section: Observed Climatic Changes In the Caribbeanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Observed Climatic Changes In the Caribbeanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Observed Climatic Changes In the Caribbeanmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean

Karmalkar¹,

Taylor²,

Campbell³

et al. 2013

Atmósfera

102

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In the Caribbean, the percentage of days with very warm temperature minima or maxima increased strongly since the 1950s, while the percentage of days with cold temperatures decreased (Petersen et al, 2002 Analyses of sea-level records having at least 25 years of hourly data from stations installed around the Pacific Basin show an overall average mean relative sea-level rise of 0.7 mm/yr (Mitchell et al, 2001). Focusing only on the island stations with more than 50 years of data (only four locations), the average rate of sea-level rise (relative to the Earth's crust) is 1.6 mm/yr.…”

Section: Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resistance and Resilience of A Stream Salamander To Supraseasonal Drought

2012

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“…[3] Precipitation and temperature extremes have been studied in many regions around the world, such as in the Asia-Pacific region [Griffiths et al, 2005;Manton et al, 2001], Caribbean region [Peterson et al, 2002], southern and west Africa [New et al, 2006], South America [Haylock et al, 2006;Vincent et al, 2005], Middle East [X. Zhang et al, 2005], Central America and northern South American [Aguilar et al, 2005], and central and south Asia [Klein Tank et al, 2006].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2005

et al. 2008

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[1] Changes in indices of climate extremes are analyzed on the basis of daily maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation at 71 meteorological stations with elevation above 2000 m above sea level in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau (TP) during . Twelve indices of extreme temperature and nine indices of extreme precipitation are examined. Temperature extremes show patterns consistent with warming during the studied period, with a large proportion of stations showing statistically significant trends for all temperature indices. Stations in the northwestern, southwestern, and southeastern TP have larger trend magnitudes. The regional occurrence of extreme cold days and nights has decreased by À0.85 and À2.38 d/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the occurrence of extreme warm days and nights has increased by 1.26 and 2.54 d/decade, respectively. The number of frost days and ice days shows statistically significant decreasing at the rate of À4.32 and À2.46 d/decade, respectively. The length of growing season has statistically increased by 4.25 d/decade. The diurnal temperature range exhibits a statistically decreasing trend at a rate of À0.20°C per decade. The extreme temperature indices also show statistically significant increasing trends, with larger values for the index describing variations in the lowest minimum temperature. In general, warming trends in minimum temperature indices are of greater magnitude than those for maximum temperature. Most precipitation indices exhibit increasing trends in the southern and northern TP and show decreasing trends in the central TP. On average, regional annual total precipitation, heavy precipitation days, maximum 1-day precipitation, average wet days precipitation, and total precipitation on extreme wet days show nonsignificant increases. Decreasing trends are found for maximum 5-day precipitation, consecutive wet days, and consecutive dry days, but only the last is statistically significant.

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Recent changes in climate extremes in the Caribbean region

Cited by 253 publications

References 16 publications

A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean

A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean

Resistance and Resilience of A Stream Salamander To Supraseasonal Drought

Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2005

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